God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks

Shenoy, Ajay; Sharma, Bhavyaa; Xu, Guanghong; Kapoor, Rolly; Rho, Haedong; Sangha, Kinpritma

doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102575

Cited by 23 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Our study also showed that the rainy season has a positive effect on reduction of HFMD transmission (eTable 6 in the Supplement). This nding is similar with the ndings of previous studies in which the rainy season was reported to have likely reduced outdoor activities and social mixing (i.e., rainy season offered a social-distancing bene t against the epidemic) [30,31]. We found that these school-based measures had no signi cant impact on HFMD transmission in 2015 (associated reduction rate, 1.83%; 95% CI, − 0.58-4.28%).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Impact of public health and social measures on hand-foot-mouth disease transmission and prediction of upcoming season after relaxation of COVID-19 control measures

Ryu

Han²,

Ali³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background School based-measures such as school closure and school holidays have been considered a viable intervention during the hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) epidemic. However, the impact of public health and social measures (PHSMs) on HFMD transmission and the consequences of the HFMD epidemic after relaxing the PHSMs remains unclear. Methods Korean national surveillance data on HFMD from 2014 to 2019 was used to estimate the temporal changes in HFMD transmissibility (instantaneous reproductive number, \({R}_{t}\)). Furthermore, we used a simulation based stochastic transmission model to predict the future burden of HFMDs after relaxation of COVID-19 PHSMs, assuming all the Korean population was susceptible to HFMD in 2023, the stochastic transmission model simulated the number of HFMD cases in South Korea. Results We found that school holidays and 2015 PHSMs reduced the \({R}_{t}\) by 2–7% and 13%, respectively. Model projections indicated that the peak magnitude for season 2023, after relaxation of COVID-19 PHSMs in late 2022, could be 2·5–8·5 fold larger than that of the HFMD seasons during the pre-pandemic. Conclusions PHSMs likely have a larger impact on HFMD transmission than school-based measures alone (i.e. school holidays). Furthermore, complete relaxation of COVID-19 PHSMs could significantly increase the HFMD infection burden for the upcoming HFMD season. Preventive measures targeting preschoolers could be considered as potential options for reducing the future burden of HFMD.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Impact of public health and social measures on hand-foot-mouth disease transmission and prediction of upcoming season after relaxation of COVID-19 control measures

Ryu

Han²,

Ali³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…The positive relationship between big firms and excess mortality due to COVID-19 seems to reinforce the idea that ambient air pollution can increase the severity of the disease. While the virtuous effect of historical rainy days can be explained considering the arguments put forward by Shenoy et al 107 , which argued that rainfall may lead to higher social distancing. This could have mitigated the negative impact of the outbreak.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If some studies found that temperature may increase the spread of COVID-19 8 , 101 , other research found a negative statistical association between the two variables 102 , 103 .While, there is a substantial consensus in the literature that warmer climate conditions may reduce COVID-19 mortality 103 – 105 and case-fatality rate 17 . Even if rainfall was not found to be an important predictive factor in COVID-19 spread and mortality in the most literature 106 , a recent paper pointed out that rainfall may lead to higher social distancing and help to mitigate the adverse effects of the outbreak 107 . The provinces with international borders, the share of foreign population, the province capital’s distance from the nearest airport, and the size of the province are used to control the effect of the movement of people.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impact of long-term exposure to nine outdoor air pollutants on COVID-19 spatial spread and related mortality in 107 Italian provinces

Perone

2022

Sci Rep

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This paper investigates the air quality in 107 Italian provinces in the period 2014–2019 and the association between exposure to nine outdoor air pollutants and the COVID-19 spread and related mortality in the same areas. The methods used were negative binomial (NB) regression, ordinary least squares (OLS) model, and spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. The results showed that (i) common air pollutants—nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10)—were highly and positively correlated with large firms, energy and gas consumption, public transports, and livestock sector; (ii) long-term exposure to NO2, PM2.5, PM10, benzene, benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), and cadmium (Cd) was positively and significantly correlated with the spread of COVID-19; and (iii) long-term exposure to NO2, O3, PM2.5, PM10, and arsenic (As) was positively and significantly correlated with COVID-19 related mortality. Specifically, particulate matter and Cd showed the most adverse effect on COVID-19 prevalence; while particulate matter and As showed the largest dangerous impact on excess mortality rate. The results were confirmed even after controlling for eighteen covariates and spatial effects. This outcome seems of interest because benzene, BaP, and heavy metals (As and Cd) have not been considered at all in recent literature. It also suggests the need for a national strategy to drive down air pollutant concentrations to cope better with potential future pandemics.

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“…16 All available hourly, population-weighted ERA5 and NLDAS values since January 1, 2020 were extracted, aggregated to daily mean or total values, and matched by date and district to the R t values. The following variables were included as the main exposures of interest based on their documented or hypothesized associations with SARS-CoV-2: near surface air temperature (°C) 32,33 ; relative humidity (%) 34 ; solar radiation (KJ/m 2 ) 35 ; total precipitation volume (mm) 36 ; average 10-m above ground wind speed (m/s). 37 In addition, average volumetric soil moisture (m 3 /m 3 ) was included as a negative control exposure 38 , since it is a variable presumed to affect infectious disease transmission through its influence on pathogen survival on surfaces and fomites 31 , which is thought to be at most only a secondary mode of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of Tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis

Colston

Hinson

Nguyen

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally and South America has been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled effects of 6 weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (Rt) in three contiguous countries of Tropical Andean South America (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural and other factors. Methods: Daily time-series data on SARS-CoV-2 infections were sourced from health authorities of the three countries at the smallest available administrative level. Rt values were calculated and merged by date and unit ID with variables from a Unified COVID-19 dataset and other publicly available sources for May - December 2020. Generalized additive mixed effects models were fitted. Findings: Relative humidity and solar radiation were inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt. Days with radiation above 1,000 KJ/m2 saw a 1.3%, and those with humidity above 50%, a 1.0% reduction in Rt. Transmission was highest in densely populated districts, and lowest in districts with poor healthcare access and on days with least population mobility. Temperature, region, aggregate government policy response and population age structure had little impact. The fully adjusted model explained 3.9% of Rt variance. Interpretation: Dry atmospheric conditions of low humidity increase, and higher solar radiation decrease district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers, effects that are comparable in magnitude to population factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance and early warning systems in conjunction with more established risk indicators and surveillance measures.

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God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks

Cited by 23 publications

References 60 publications

Impact of public health and social measures on hand-foot-mouth disease transmission and prediction of upcoming season after relaxation of COVID-19 control measures

Impact of public health and social measures on hand-foot-mouth disease transmission and prediction of upcoming season after relaxation of COVID-19 control measures

Assessing the impact of long-term exposure to nine outdoor air pollutants on COVID-19 spatial spread and related mortality in 107 Italian provinces

Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of Tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis

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