Going concern modifications and the self-fulfilling prophecy: evidence from extreme market conditions

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to examine whether two periods of extreme market conditions – the governance crisis and Sarbanes-Oxley Act regulatory shock of 2002 and the 2007–2008 global financial crisis – incrementally impacted the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, by examining the propensity of US firms receiving going concern modification (GCM) opinions to go bankrupt relative to their non-GCM distress risk-matched counterparts during these two crisis periods. Design/methodology/approach To assess the potential influence of the governance/regulatory shock of 2002 and the global financial crisis moderate or mitigate the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, the authors use multivariate logit analysis, regressing t + 1 bankruptcy status on time t GCM and other bankruptcy determinants, interacting crisis period dummies with the GCM variable. Findings GCM firms were more likely to declare bankruptcy than their distressed non-GCM counterparts, confirming prior research documenting the existence of a self-fulfilling prophecy effect. The authors also find that the self-fulfilling prophecy effect was exacerbated by the governance crisis/Sarbanes-Oxley Act regulatory shock, but not the global financial crisis, a financial/banking sector shock. Originality/value This study contributes to the financial crisis and auditing literatures by examining whether exogenous shocks exacerbate the self-fulfilling prophecy effect. The present analysis and findings have implications for future academic research related to systemic shocks and for auditors in documenting the inducement effect arising from the issuance of GCMs during crisis periods.