Good night: Experimental evidence that nighttime curfews may fuel disease dynamics by increasing contact density

Abstract

Background Nighttime curfews have been discussed and implemented in many countries as a means of controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is evidence that such curfews have little or no effect on disease dynamics when other measures such as bans on gatherings or business and school closures are already in place. There are two possible explanations for this. First, nighttime curfews may elicit reactance—a feeling of anger that drives non-adherence; second, nighttime curfews may motivate people to shift activities from night to daytime, thereby increasing contact density. Methods A survey experiment was conducted with German participants ( N = 997) to investigate public perceptions of nighttime curfews and possible detrimental effects on contact behaviors. Results Most participants perceived nighttime curfews as ineffective. The introduction of a hypothetical curfew did not affect intentions to reduce private contacts but instead elicited reactance, motivating participants to violate curfew hours or to shift a fictitious dinner meeting to an earlier time rather than cancelling it. Conclusions When people do not support nighttime curfews or do not understand the rationale behind them, introduction of this measure may fuel the spread of the disease. For that reason, nighttime curfews should be a measure of last resort and should be accompanied by a public communication campaign explaining the importance of contact reduction during both nighttime and daylight hours.

Measuring the effect of COVID-19-related night curfews in a bundled intervention within Germany

“…They do not seem to increase incidences. The latter result seems to be important in connection with recent research based on experimental data 16 and mobility data 17 , respectively, which show that night curfews might fuel disease dynamics.…”

COVID-19: Early evening curfews and mobility

“…These studies do not measure the resulting congestion in the essential businesses, but this is likely to be high, resulting in greater risk of virus spread. Importantly, recent studies show that early evening curfews backfired in Toulouse (Dimeglio et al 2021), had no effect in Hesse (Haas et al 2021) and may elicit reactance (Sprengholz et al 2021).…”

The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19

“…Second, as these curfews do not affect daytime activities, they may not be effective in fighting the spread of Covid-19. They might be even counterproductive if they increase contact density during earlier hours of the day [32] . Generally, governments should not implement ineffective measures with substantial side-effects.…”

“…Sprengholz et al [32] examine public perceptions of nighttime curfews: The majority of participants in their survey did not perceive nighttime curfews as an effective measure to contain the pandemic and stated that they would not reduce private contacts due to a nighttime curfew. A substantial share of participants reported that they would rather shift a private dinner meeting forward in time, suggesting that nighttime curfews may increase contact density in the hours of the day when the curfew is not in place.…”

“…A substantial share of participants reported that they would rather shift a private dinner meeting forward in time, suggesting that nighttime curfews may increase contact density in the hours of the day when the curfew is not in place. While these statements refer to stated behaviors and not to actual behavior, the study by Sprengholz et al [32] highlights that nighttime curfews might backfire and actually increase Covid infections.…”