Grasping Foreign and Security Policy Change: Patterns and Conditions of Change Among Liberal Democracies

Böller, Florian; Wenzelburger, Georg

doi:10.17645/pag.7172

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 56 publications

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“…In this article, I argue that the Zeitenwende not only marks a watershed moment in international politics but also an "international orientation change" in German foreign policy (Hermann, 1990). This resonates with one of the aims of this thematic issue, namely to comparatively examine foreign policy change in the wake of the Russian war against Ukraine (see Baciu et al, 2024;Böller & Wenzelburger, 2024; among others).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Zeitenwende: German Foreign Policy Change in the Wake of Russia's War Against Ukraine

Mello

2024

PaG

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Russia’s war against Ukraine has severely damaged the European security architecture. This article examines the consequences of this rupture for German foreign and security policy. Just a few months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany saw the transition to an unprecedented three-party coalition government of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals. In a special address to the Bundestag three days after the invasion, Chancellor Olaf Scholz described Russia’s war initiation as a historical Zeitenwende (“watershed”) that called into question long-held beliefs about European security. In the wake of this, Scholz proclaimed far-reaching changes, including the announcement that military expenditure would be drastically increased, additional military capabilities would be procured, and new deployments would be committed to NATO’s eastern flank. This article argues that the Zeitenwende amounts to an international orientation change in German foreign and security policy. Apart from identifying areas of significant change, the article also documents political contestation over the Zeitenwende’s nature and extent as well as gaps between proclaimed changes and actual implementation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Zeitenwende: German Foreign Policy Change in the Wake of Russia's War Against Ukraine

Mello

2024

PaG

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Bottom‐up foreign policy? Finland, NATO and public opinion

Forsberg

2024

Scand Pol Stud

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Finland's decision to apply for membership in NATO is a case of bottom‐up driven foreign policy. Public opinion had been rather stable for more than 25 years in the NATO issue with less than 30 per cent of the people supporting Finland's membership in NATO but almost overnight during the week when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a majority of Finns were in favour of it. Only after that shift in public opinion did the decision‐makers support the idea of joining NATO. How was the bottom‐up driven change possible? First, the resistance to NATO membership in Finland was common but not deep. Second, in the run‐up to the war, Russia had demanded that NATO put a stop to its open door policy not only with regard to Ukraine but also for Finland. Third, Russia's unprovoked war on Ukraine constituted a particular frame in Finland, because the 1939 Winter War analogy was a key part of the collective memory. Finally, due to a strong tradition of national consensus in foreign and security policy, the shift in the public opinion became overwhelming: when the tide had turned, only very few resisted. In sum, four factors enabled the public opinion change: a rational basis for opinion change, a sense of urgency, an emotional push and the consensus effect. Although public opinion is often seen as stabilising and retardant force particularly in foreign and security policy, it can also be a driver for change when suitable conditions such as those in Finland exist.

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The Crisis of Liberal Interventionism and the Return of War

Baciu,

Ostermann,

Wagner

2024

PaG

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Liberal interventionism is in crisis, being weakened both from within and without. From Kabul to Kyiv and beyond, the contributions to our thematic issue reveal that the crisis of liberal interventionism has unraveled differently than previously understood. In countries of the Global North, it stretched out in different ways, depending on the political culture, party/coalition in power, or institutional path dependencies. In countries of the Global South, mandate-specific benchmarks in addition to the neglect of local agencies by both interveners and domestic elites, produced unintended consequences and a backlash effect. The articles in this thematic issue contribute to a better understanding of the crisis of liberal interventionism by unpacking the global fragmentation of collective security instruments, patterns and conditions of foreign policy change in liberal democracies, intervention failure in Afghanistan, alternative forms of interventionism like the one of the Wagner Group, international orientation change through the Zeitenwende, or counter-terrorism and deterrence postures. To conclude, the thematic issue critically investigates whether singing the swansong of liberal interventionism is premature.

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Grasping Foreign and Security Policy Change: Patterns and Conditions of Change Among Liberal Democracies

Cited by 3 publications

References 56 publications

Zeitenwende: German Foreign Policy Change in the Wake of Russia's War Against Ukraine

Zeitenwende: German Foreign Policy Change in the Wake of Russia's War Against Ukraine

Bottom‐up foreign policy? Finland, NATO and public opinion

The Crisis of Liberal Interventionism and the Return of War

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