Greater increases in temperature extremes in low versus high income countries

Herold, Nicholas; Alexander, Lisa V.; Green, Donna; Donat, Markus G.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5c43

Cited by 44 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…As previously discussed, mean temperature does not influence yields very much. Thus, just as a hint, this could confirm previous studies which show how the large observed increase in mean temperatures and heat waves directly influence humans and animals, by exceeding their threshold of thermal tolerance, especially in low-income countries such as those of the Sahel (Herold et al 2017, Mora et al 2017. Clearly, further investigation is necessary on more detailed datasets, which can bridge our present gap of knowledge about more specific social drivers and other indirect influences of temperature.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 83%

Linear and nonlinear influences of climatic changes on migration flows: a case study for the ‘Mediterranean bridge’

Pasini

Amendola

2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The influence of climatic changes on migrations around the world is a topic widely discussed in the scientific literature, but investigations are often limited to particular regions. The possible causes of migration flows from Africa to Europe due to landings in Italy, a peninsula which can be considered as a 'bridge' between these two continents, have not been investigated in detail even if, at present, this problem is at the top of the political agenda in Europe. Here a simple linear model and a fully nonlinear one (neural networks-NNs) are applied to the study of possible climatic influences on migration flows from the Sahel to Italy during the period 1995-2009. The results show the ability of the NN model to explain the majority of the variance found in the data and permit the identification of the major climatic drivers affecting the amount of yields in Sahelian countries and the migrations flows from them to Italy. In particular, the use of a NN model fully identifies both linear and nonlinear influences. We can explain much of the variance in the migration data (R 2 =0.775). Agriculture (harvest yields) is shown to link climatic changes and migration, and poor yields can enhance this latter phenomenon. Heat waves (during the cereal growing season) have an important nonlinear role. The annual temperature, however, is most likely the dominant climatic factor influencing migrations in this region.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 83%

Linear and nonlinear influences of climatic changes on migration flows: a case study for the ‘Mediterranean bridge’

Pasini

Amendola

2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

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“…As anthropogenic influence on the global climate intensifies, future increases in heatwaves are unavoidable 10 – 15 . Some regions where intense heat is already common may become inhabitable 16 , while tropical regions will experience extremely large increases in heatwave frequency due to low interannual variability 17 , 18 . Projected increases in heatwaves are dependent on the underpinning emissions scenario, with the largest changes anticipated under ‘business as usual’ (RCP8.5) 13 – 15 , 19 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature

Perkins‐Kirkpatrick

Gibson

2017

Sci Rep

303

192

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The Paris Agreement calls for global warming to be limited to 1.5–2 °C. For the first time, this study investigates how different regional heatwave characteristics (intensity, frequency and duration) are projected to change relative to increasing global warming thresholds. Increases in heatwave days between 4–34 extra days per season are projected per °C of global warming. Some tropical regions could experience up to 120 extra heatwave days/season if 5 °C is reached. Increases in heatwave intensity are generally 0.5–1.5 °C above a given global warming threshold, however are higher over the Mediterranean and Central Asian regions. Between warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C, the return intervals of intense heatwaves reduce by 2–3 fold. Heatwave duration is projected to increase by 2–10 days/°C, with larger changes over lower latitudes. Analysis of two climate model ensembles indicate that variation in the rate of heatwave changes is dependent on physical differences between different climate models, however internal climate variability bears considerable influence on the expected range of regional heatwave changes per warming threshold. The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.

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“…Using a casestudy based methodology limits the geographic coverage. Campbell et al (2018) highlighted that areas with the least coverage also have lower wealth per adult, while Herold et al (2017) found that temperature extremes increased more in lowversus high-income countries. Numerous studies show evidence that countries with lower levels of wealth tend to have reduced numbers of health workers, which leads to worse health outcomes (Anand and Bärnighausen 2007;Speybroeck et al 2006).…”

Section: Health Impacts Of Heatwavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and cross-country analysis of exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves from 1980 to 2018

Chambers

2020

Climatic Change

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Heatwaves have become more frequent and intense due to anthropogenic global warming and have serious and potentially life-threatening impacts on human health, particularly for people over 65 years old. While a range of studies examine heatwave exposures, few cover the whole globe and very few cover key areas in Africa, South America, and East Asia. By using global gridded climate reanalysis, population, and demographic data, this work analyses trends in change in exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves, providing global and per-country aggregate statistics. The difference between the global mean of heatwave indexes and the mean weighted by vulnerable population found that these populations are experiencing up to five times the number of heatwave days relative to the global average. The total exposures, measured in person-days of heatwave, highlight the combined effect of increased heatwaves and aging populations. In China and India, heatwave exposure increased by an average of 508 million person-days per year in the last decade. Mapping of changes per country highlighted significant exposure increases, particularly in the Middle East and in South East Asia. Major disparities were found between the heatwave exposures, country income group, and country health system capacity, thus highlighting the significant inequalities in global warming impacts and response capacities with respect to health across countries. It is therefore of prime importance that health development and response are coordinated with climate change mitigation and adaptation work.

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Greater increases in temperature extremes in low versus high income countries

Cited by 44 publications

References 22 publications

Linear and nonlinear influences of climatic changes on migration flows: a case study for the ‘Mediterranean bridge’

Linear and nonlinear influences of climatic changes on migration flows: a case study for the ‘Mediterranean bridge’

Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature

Global and cross-country analysis of exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves from 1980 to 2018

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