Grey-Markov Model for the Prediction of the Electricity Production and Consumption

Elgharbi, S.; Mustapha, Esghir; Ibrihich, O.; Abarda, Abdallah; Hajji, Saïd El; Elbernoussi, Souad

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-23672-4_16

Cited by 9 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…• planning of production volume (Elgharbi et al, 2020;Li et al, 2018;Wu et al, 2017) of forecasting in production engineering. Tab.…”

Section: Discussion Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Classification of forecasting methods in production engineering

Winkowski

2019

Engineering Management in Production and Services

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Business management is a continuous decision-making process. It is difficult to imagine a company that does not use forecasting techniques. Even small enterprises without relevant forecasting departments more or less consciously anticipate future events, forecasting the volume of production and setting directions for development. Today’s production companies must quickly adapt to changing customer requirements, implementing structural and technological changes and delivering projects related to the production of new products. Under the dynamically changing conditions, the functioning and effective management of modern enterprises depend on future-oriented information. This increases the validity of forecasting. This article aimed to identify forecasting methods and areas of their use in production engineering. The publications on this subject were reviewed in the Scopus database, using the time frame from January 1970 to June 2018. An original classification of research subareas was created using VOS viewer software, and then, a bibliometric map was developed to visualise the results of the word coexistence analysis. The analysis of the co-occurrence and co-classification of words made it possible to indicate research subareas of forecasting in production engineering and related emerging research areas and issues.

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“…• planning of production volume (Elgharbi et al, 2020;Li et al, 2018;Wu et al, 2017) of forecasting in production engineering. Tab.…”

Section: Discussion Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Classification of forecasting methods in production engineering

Winkowski

2019

Engineering Management in Production and Services

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“…Theorem 1.1 [15]. A Markov chain { , ≥ 0} is completely characterised by the initial distribution and the transition probability matrix .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Every forecasting model has its advantages and speciality for solving complex real-world problems but Markov chains, which is a special case of the stochastic process [12] with the Markov property, excels, in that it offers ideal conditions for the study of mathematical modelling of various phenomena depending on random-variables [13]. The Markov property makes it possible to simplify some predictions about stochastic processes by www.abjournals.org viewing the future as being independent of the past given the present state of the process [14,15]. This property makes the Markov chain adaptable to a situation like this when epidemic data is still insufficient and difficult to apply directly to existing mathematical models which requires relatively large sample data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Markovian Analysis of Covid-19 Dynamics

Ibrahim-Tiamiyu¹,

Oni²,

Adeleke

2021

African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies

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Covid-19 is an emergency and viral infection with its outbreak being termed as one of the great epidemics in the 21st century causing so many deaths, which made WHO declare it as a pandemic emergency. This virus is new and comes with its characteristics of which randomness and uncertainty are among its common features. In this paper, we developed a model for carrying out an analysis of COVID-19 dynamics using Markov-chain theory methodology. Here, we employed the use of conditional probability distribution as embedded in the Markov property of our chain to construct the transition probabilities that were used in determining the probability distributions of COVID-19 patients as well as predicting its future spread dynamics. We provide a step-by-step approach to obtaining probability distributions of infected and recovered individuals, of infected and recovering and of a recovered patient being getting infected again. This study reveals that irrespective of the initial state of health of an individual, we will always have probabilities P_RI/〖(P〗_IR+P_RI) of an individual being infected and P_RI/〖(P〗_IR+P_RI) of an individual recovering from this disease. Also, with increasing ‘n’, we have an equilibrium that does not depend on the initial conditions, the implication of which is that at some point in time, the situation stabilizes and the distribution X_(n+1) is the same as that of X_n. We envision that the output of this model will assist those in the health system and related fields to plan for the potential impact of the pandemic and its peak.

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“…Her tahmin modelinin gerçek ve karmaşık olan problemleri çözmek için diğerlerine nazaran farklı avantajları vardır. Problemin oluşmasına sebep olan etkenlerin karşılıklı ilişkilerini belirlemek için Markov zinciri modeli geliştirilen önemli araçlardan biridir [13]. Markov zinciri, stokastik sürecin özel bir durumudur [14].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Prediction of Nevşehir Province Air Quality with Markov Chain

Baştürk

Alver

2021

Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim Ve Teknoloji Dergisi

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ve 0,982 oranında başarıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Nevşehir İli hava kalitesine bağlı olarak daha az değişken duruma sahip olan Ayrık-Zamanlı Markov Zinciri Modeli hem eğitimde hem de kontrolünde kullanılan HKİ verilerini tahmin etmede daha başarılı bulunmuştur. Sonuç olarak Markov Zinciri modellerinin farklı hava koşullarını tahmin etmede başarılı bir yöntem olarak kullanılabileceği belirlenmiştir.

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Grey-Markov Model for the Prediction of the Electricity Production and Consumption

Cited by 9 publications

References 14 publications

Classification of forecasting methods in production engineering

Classification of forecasting methods in production engineering

Markovian Analysis of Covid-19 Dynamics

Prediction of Nevşehir Province Air Quality with Markov Chain

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