Grey swan tropical cyclones

Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry

doi:10.1038/nclimate2777

Cited by 163 publications

(129 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The frequency of occurrence of high intensity tropical cyclones is predicted to increase with a warming atmosphere [43,44] and it is further predicted that there will be an increase in "peak wind intensities" because of ocean warming [1]. As an example, it recently was predicted [45] that incidences of grey swan tropical cyclones, defined as high impact storms that cannot be predicted based on past history, will increase considerably. Such intense and unpredictable storms for Tampa, Florida currently have a probability of occurrence in any given year of 1 in 10,000.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Variability Provide a Lens to How Shallow Lakes May Respond to Climate Change

Havens

Paerl

Phlips

et al. 2016

Water

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Shallow lakes, particularly those in low-lying areas of the subtropics, are highly vulnerable to changes in climate associated with global warming. Many of these lakes are in tropical cyclone strike zones and they experience high inter-seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall and runoff. Both of those factors strongly modulate sediment-water column interactions, which play a critical role in shallow lake nutrient cycling, water column irradiance characteristics and cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (CyanoHAB) dynamics. We illustrate this with three examples, using long-term (15-25 years) datasets on water quality and plankton from three shallow lakes: Lakes Okeechobee and George (Florida, USA) and Lake Taihu (China). Okeechobee and Taihu have been impacted repeatedly by tropical cyclones that have resulted in large amounts of runoff and sediment resuspension, and resultant increases in dissolved nutrients in the water column. In both cases, when turbidity declined, major blooms of the toxic CyanoHAB Microcystis aeruginosa occurred over large areas of the lakes. In Lake George, periods of high rainfall resulted in high dissolved color, reduced irradiance, and increased water turnover rates which suppress blooms, whereas in dry periods with lower water color and water turnover rates there were dense cyanobacteria blooms. We identify a suite of factors which, from our experience, will determine how a particular shallow lake will respond to a future with global warming, flashier rainfall, prolonged droughts and stronger tropical cyclones.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Variability Provide a Lens to How Shallow Lakes May Respond to Climate Change

Havens

Paerl

Phlips

et al. 2016

Water

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“…Also, large uncertainties exist in GCM projections on both future storm activity and RSL rise, as shown in this study; future research should examine the GCMs on their capability to accurately project the key atmospheric and ocean variables that control hurricane activity and sea level dynamics. Ultimately, proxy storm records that span centuries to millennia, over various climate states, may provide critical information for evaluating model projections of both the frequency of extreme floods (31,32) and how they change with the climate (33).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Lin

Kopp

Horton

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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169

131

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Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.Hurricane Sandy | storm surge | sea level rise | climate change | New York City I n October of 2012, Hurricane Sandy flooded the US East Coast with extreme storm surges. At the Battery tide gauge in New York City (NYC), the storm surge reached 2.8 m; the storm tide, which includes also the astronomical tide, reached a record height of 3.44 m (the North American Vertical Datum of 1988). Estimating the frequency of Sandy-like flood events, including how it changes over time, provides critical information for coastal risk mitigation and climate adaptation. Previous studies have investigated the frequency of Hurricane Sandy under the historical climate (1-4). In this study, we focus on how the frequency of extreme floods induced by Sandy-like events varies in response to changes in the sea level (5) and storm activity (6, 7) due to climate change. In particular, we investigate (i) the influence of historical sea level rise in shaping the current flood hazard in NYC and (ii) the impact of projected future climate change and sea level rise on Sandy-like flood events.To compare flood events across time periods, we define the flood height as the peak water level during a storm relative to a baseline mean sea level (e.g., the mean sea level in 2000). Here we focus on the sea level components that vary with the climate and do not account for the effect of astronomical tide. Thus, we calculate the flood height as the sum of the peak storm surge and relative sea level (RSL; relative to the baseline). Then, for a given climate state, the return period (reciprocal of frequency) of floods of different heights can be estimated by combining (i) the storm frequency (assuming that the storms arrive as a Poisson process) and (ii) the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the flood height, which can be obtained by combining the CDF of the storm surge and the probability distribution function (PDF) of RSL (Methods). In such a framework, we integrate the estimated RSL PDF with modeled storm frequency and storm surge CDF (which, together, describe storm surge climatology) to estimate NYC's flood return periods from year 1800 to 2100.We consider storm surges induced by hurricanes/tropical cyclones. (Extratropical cyclones can also induce co...

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“…The ADCIRC + SWAN and BOUSS1D models applied in this study present an accurate and computationally efficient approach to simulating these flood effects over large study areas. Although this study focused on a single historical event, the modeling framework can also be coupled with recent advances in cyclone modeling to estimate various return periods of inundation and wave action for a given location Lin and Emanuel, 2015). This modeling can be combined with estimates of structural vulnerability such as those presented in this study to quantify surge damage risk at both the house and community levels.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Vulnerability of Structures and Residential Communities to Storm Surge: An Analysis of Flood Impact during Hurricane Sandy

Hatzikyriakou

Lin

2018

Front. Built Environ.

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With 6.5 million households in the United States located in areas prone to storm surge, assessing the vulnerability of structures and residential communities to coastal flooding is an important concern. Of particular interest is understanding how the performance of structures during surge events is influenced by flood conditions, coastal defenses, and building design at both the house and community level. This study presents such a vulnerability analysis by investigating the impact of coastal flooding from Hurricane Sandy (2012) on 95 km of developed coastline across New Jersey and New York. Exterior structural damage observed from a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) aerial survey of the study area is related to (1) a hindcast simulation of flood inundation and wave action, (2) a classification of coastal defenses and storm-induced erosion, and (3) minimum building design elevations specified in FEMA's flood hazard mapping. Findings indicate that the hardest hit communities experienced significant dune erosion, which coincided with severe flood and wave exposure. Furthermore, structures were considerably more susceptible to flood impact if Sandy's flood level exceeded FEMA's 100-year Base Flood Elevation dictating building design. These results are quantified by developing fragility curves relating both house and community-level performance to the considered vulnerability parameters. Findings from this study can be used to inform decision making for improving coastal resilience.

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Grey swan tropical cyclones

Cited by 163 publications

References 51 publications

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Variability Provide a Lens to How Shallow Lakes May Respond to Climate Change

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Variability Provide a Lens to How Shallow Lakes May Respond to Climate Change

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Assessing the Vulnerability of Structures and Residential Communities to Storm Surge: An Analysis of Flood Impact during Hurricane Sandy

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