Gross Regional Domestic Product Forecasts Using Trend Analysis: Case Study of Bangka Belitung Province

Abstract

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is one of the important indicators to determine the economic conditions in the region. This study aims to forecast the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the Province of Bangka Belitung Islands which is dominated by tourism sector. This forecasting to be expected to give information to formulate a type of policy action that will be conducted by decision makers based on GRDP data. GRDP data are from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2017 on the basis of constant prices in 2010. Data sources are obtained from Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of the Province of Bangka Belitung Islands. The forecasting method used is the research is trend analysis. The results of the GRDP forecasting of Bangka Belitung Province in the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2022 shows an increasing trend. It can be seen from historical data that shows an increasing trend as evidenced from the graph on linear trends. The increasing trend in GRDP of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province for the next five years is supported by government policies that prioritize the tourism sector. Consequently, by prioritizing the tourism sector, this will increase economic growth and can reduce GRDP dependency on mining sector, especially tin that has been continuously decreased.

Potential Leading Sector to Drive Economic Growth in West Nusa Tenggara Province

“…On the downstream side, diversification of derivative goods is one strategy to preserve commodity price stability after harvest because further processing can provide commodities a longer shelf life and a more appealing selling price. Government measures that give the tourism industry top priority support the trend of rising GRDP during the next five years, in contrast to the findings by Oktaviana & Amalia (2018). Hence, by giving the tourism industry priority not agricuture, this would boost economic growth and can lessen GRDP's dependence on the mining sector, which is still in decline.…”

Analysis of Industry-Based Plantation Commodity Development in the Area of Jambi Province

“…Secondary survey data in this study include administrative data region, demographic data, district, provincial and national plantation commodity production data, gross regional domestic product (GRDP) districts and provinces, data on the selling price of Jambi plantation commodities, data on Jambi area infrastructure, and others related data. According to some experts, this GRDP measures the economic performance of a country in a certain year (Feriyanto, 2014;Leasiwal, 2015;Oktaviana & Amalia, 2018).…”

15 Year Aceh Economic Leverage Analysis Post-Mou Helsinki

“…GDRB or what is known as Gross Regional Domestic Product is all goods and services produced through economic activities in a domestic area during a certain period, without distinguishing whether the production factors originate from or are owned by residents of the area (Abel and Bernake, 2001). GDRB is one of the important indicators to determine the economic condition of a region in a certain period (Oktaviana and Amalia, 2018). The value generated from each business sector supporting GDRB becomes the determining factor and driving force for the regional economy.…”