Ground motions variability in Israel from 3-D simulations of M 6 and M 7 earthquakes

Abstract

Abstract. In Israel, due to low seismicity rates and sparse seismic network, the temporal and spatial coverage of ground motion data is insufficient to estimate the variability of moderate-strong (M > 6) ground motions required to construct a local ground motion model (GMM). To fill this data gap and to study the ground motions variability of M > 6 events, we performed a series of 3-D numerical simulations of M 6 and M 7 earthquakes. Based on the results of the simulations, we developed a statistical attenuation model (AM) and studied the residuals between simulated and AM PGVs and the single station variability. We also compared the simulated ground motions with a global GMM in terms of peak ground velocity (PGV) and significant duration (Ds 595). Our results suggest that the AM was unable to fully capture the simulated ground motions variability, mainly due to the incorporation of super-shear rupture and effects of local sedimentary structures. We also show that an imported GMM considerably deviates from simulated ground motions. This work sets the basis for future development of a comprehensive GMM for Israel, accounting for local sources, path, and site effects.