Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire R.; O’Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffrey B.; Burger, Patrick

doi:10.3133/sir20125161

Cited by 6 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The declines have been attributed to groundwater withdrawals and long‐term below‐average rainfall. To assist water‐resource managers in assessing the effects of several proposed regional groundwater use scenarios on the potentiometric surfaces of the FAS and on spring flows that are of ecological and social importance, a groundwater flow model for east‐central Florida was developed by Sepúlveda et al ().…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The hydrogeologic units within the UFA include the Ocala permeable zone (OPZ, Layer 3), the Ocala low‐permeable zone (OLPZ, Layer 4), and the Avon Park permeable zone (APPZ, Layer 5). Sepúlveda et al () provide a detailed analysis of the hydrogeology in east‐central Florida and a description of the development and calibration of the transient groundwater flow in the SAS, ICU, and FAS that serves as the basis for this study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The data used for calibration of the steady‐state model were heads and spring flows averaged separately over measurements spanning 1999 and 2003. Average annual recharge rates for 1999 and 2003 were simulated by routing infiltration through the unsaturated zone with the UZF1 package (Niswonger et al ), a component of a calibrated transient 1995 to 2006 groundwater flow model (Sepúlveda et al ). The final spatial distribution of aquifer properties was achieved by using the parameter estimation code PEST (Doherty , ) for inverse modeling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty Analysis of a Groundwater Flow Model in East‐Central Florida

Sepúlveda¹,

Doherty

2014

Groundwater

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A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan Aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The "Null Space Monte Carlo" method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model's capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial or temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty Analysis of a Groundwater Flow Model in East‐Central Florida

Sepúlveda¹,

Doherty

2014

Groundwater

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“…Similar to Five Blue Lake National Park, Floridian lakes Jackson and Scott have also experienced draining due to sinkhole activity (Penson, 2002;McBride et al, 2011). Various water budgets calculated by USGS investigators in karstic areas, like Florida, have helped researchers to better understand water movement and seasonal variability (Dalton et al, 2004;Spechler, 2010;McBride et al, 2011;Sepú lveda et al, 2012). This case study presents a water budget that combines the approaches used by Dalton et al, Spechler, and McBride et al, but was applied to capture a signature of the Rome Formation limestone aquifer in the Ridge and Valley Province of northwest Georgia.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More specifically, the great seasonal variability of lakes' water budgets tied to the Florida aquifer and the repercussions to surrounding communities has been the focus of recent United States Geological Survey investigations (Dalton et al, 2004;Spechler, 2010;McBride et al, 2011;Sepú lveda et al, 2012). The research conducted at Lake Seminole (Dalton et al, 2004) provided the framework for the water budget completed in this study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sinkholes and a Disappearing Lake: Victory Lake Case Study

Jovanelly¹

2014

JCKS

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Human-induced sinkhole collapse can result in drastic changes to landscape aesthetics and present challenges to land managers seeking to determine the plausibility of restoration, the amount of financial investment needed, and the long-term sustainability of tampering with karstic environments. Alteration of groundwater flow in a karstic environment expedited the formation of large sinkholes in the southern end of man-made Victory Lake, causing it to drain immediately. Soon after the lake emptied in 1986, two unsuccessful attempts were made to restore the 13 ha (32 ac) lake. The sinkholes formed in the southern basin were completely in-filled, eliminating 3 ha (8 ac) of lake basin and significantly altering the original lake morphology. Some twenty-seven years later, Victory Lake is holding some water in the shallow basin at the northern end and would primarily be classified as a marshy wetland. This study was initiated to investigate the current relationship between the groundwater and surface water at the lake's altered basin to determine the potential for it to be restored fully or partially as a recreational focal point of the Berry College campus. Over the course of one year we measured the inputs (stream flow and precipitation) and outputs (evaporation and surface water outflow) of the lake system. We were able to conclude that groundwater is not likely contributing to the lake, based on inorganic and stable isotope ( 18 O and 2 H) water chemistry analysis and the deep position of the groundwater table relative to the lake bottom. From the results of dye-tracer tests conducted in the lake, we concluded that basin water may not be escaping downward at measurable rates because of its clay bottom. Our overall water-budget analysis confirms an adequate water volume entering by rainfall and ephemeral stream inflow; nearly 90% of the water leaves Victory Lake through surface-water outflow. Water loss through evapotranspiration during spring and summer months overcomes the gain accomplished during wetter and cooler months, particularly February. Through an investigation of water level records kept for campus monitoring wells from 1998 through 2012 we confirm that the groundwater table has stabilized and the immediate threat of new sinkhole formation is minimal. Restoration of Victory Lake to its original picturesque meeting spot may be possible through creative engineering strategies and project financing. However, we question the longevity of managing a karstic environment and consider the potential risks to infrastructure, groundwater, and human health should lake bottom failure occur again on campus.

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A physically constrained wavelet‐aided statistical model for multi‐decadal groundwater dynamics predictions

Gordu

Nachabe

2021

Hydrological Processes

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A physically constrained wavelet-aided statistical model (PCWASM) is presented to analyse and predict monthly groundwater dynamics on multi-decadal or longer time scales. The approach retains the simplicity of regression modelling but is constrained by temporal scales of processes responsible for groundwater level variation, including aquifer recharge and pumping. The methodology integrates statistical correlations enhanced with wavelet analysis into established principles of groundwater hydraulics including convolution, superposition and the Cooper-Jacob solution. The systematic approach includes (1) identification of hydrologic trends and correlations using crosscorrelation and multi-time scale wavelet analyses; (2) integrating temperature-based evapotranspiration and groundwater pumping stresses and (3) assessing model prediction performances using fixed-block k-fold cross-validation and split calibrationvalidation methods. The approach is applied at three hydrogeologicaly distinct sites in North Florida in the United States using over 40 years of monthly groundwater levels. The systematic approach identifies two patterns of cross-correlations between groundwater levels and historical rainfall, indicating low-frequency variabilities are critical for long-term predictions. The models performed well for predicting monthly groundwater levels from 7 to 22 years with less than 2.1 ft (0.7 m) errors. Further evaluation by the moving-block bootstrap regression indicates the PCWASM can be a reliable tool for long-term groundwater level predictions. This study provides a parsimonious approach to predict multi-decadal groundwater dynamics with the ability to discern impacts of pumping and climate change on aquifer levels. The PCWASM is computationally efficient and can be implemented using publicly available datasets. Thus, it should provide a versatile tool for managers and researchers for predicting multi-decadal monthly groundwater levels under changing climatic and pumping impacts over a long time period.

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Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

Cited by 6 publications

References 24 publications

Uncertainty Analysis of a Groundwater Flow Model in East‐Central Florida

Uncertainty Analysis of a Groundwater Flow Model in East‐Central Florida

Sinkholes and a Disappearing Lake: Victory Lake Case Study

A physically constrained wavelet‐aided statistical model for multi‐decadal groundwater dynamics predictions

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