Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

Peterson, Steven M.; Flynn, Amanda T.; Traylor, Jonathan P.

doi:10.3133/sir20165153

Cited by 14 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…GWSAs from the ESPAM and GRACE both show a significant declining trend approximately −15 km 3 /15 yr). In the NHP, there is good agreement between simulated GWS depletion (−20 km 3 ) (Peterson et al, 2016) and that calculated from GRACE GWSAs (−18 km 3 ) during the 2003–2006 drought period. The simulated decline in GWSA in the Southern High Plains through 2012 (Deeds & Jigmond, 2015) is approximately two times the decline from GRACE GWSAs, and the regional model does not capture the increase in GWSAs during 2006–2008 related to elevated precipitation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 60%

Comparison of Groundwater Storage Changes From GRACE Satellites With Monitoring and Modeling of Major U.S. Aquifers

Rateb

Scanlon

Pool³

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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GRACE satellite data are widely used to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) changes in aquifers globally; however, comparisons with GW monitoring and modeling data are limited. Here we compared GWS changes from GRACE over 15 yr (2002-2017) in 14 major U.S. aquifers with groundwater-level (GWL) monitoring data in~23,000 wells and with regional and global hydrologic and land surface models. Results show declining GWS trends from GRACE data in the six southwestern and south-central U.S. aquifers, totaling −90 km 3 over 15 yr, related to long-term (5-15 yr) droughts, and exceeding Lake Mead volume by~2.5×. GWS trends in most remaining aquifers were stable or slightly rising. GRACE-derived GWS changes agree with GWL monitoring data in most aquifers (correlation coefficients, R = 0.52-0.95), showing that GRACE satellites capture groundwater (GW) dynamics. Regional GW models (eight models) generally show similar or greater GWS trends than those from GRACE. Large discrepancies in the Mississippi Embayment aquifer, with modeled GWS decline approximately four times that of GRACE, may reflect uncertainties in model storage parameters, stream capture, pumpage, and/or recharge rates. Global hydrologic models (2003-2014), which include GW pumping, generally overestimate GRACE GWS depletion (total: approximately −172 to −186 km 3) in heavily exploited aquifers in southwestern and south-central U.S. by~2.4× (GRACE: −74 km 3), underscoring needed modeling improvements relative to anthropogenic impacts. Global land surface models tend to track GRACE GWS dynamics better than global hydrologic models. Intercomparing remote sensing, monitoring, and modeling data underscores the importance of considering all data sources to constrain GWS uncertainties. Plain Language Summary The major U.S. aquifers provide an ideal system to assess GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data. We compared GRACE groundwater storage anomalies (GWSAs) with groundwater level anomalies (GWLAs) from~23,000 wells and with groundwater storage (GWS) from regional and global models in 14 major U.S. aquifers. Results show large GWS declines from GRACE in southwestern (Central Valley and Arizona Alluvial Basins) and south-central (Central and Southern High Plains and Texas) aquifers from multiyear droughts (5-15 yr). In contrast, GWS trends in aquifers throughout the rest of the U.S. showed mostly stable or rising values. Time series of GRACE GWSAs compared favorably with GWLAs from most aquifers, suggesting that GRACE data track groundwater (GW) dynamics. Regional GW models show similar or greater declines in GWS compared with GRACE data, with the largest discrepancy of a factor of four times greater modeled depletion in the ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 60%

Comparison of Groundwater Storage Changes From GRACE Satellites With Monitoring and Modeling of Major U.S. Aquifers

Rateb

Scanlon

Pool³

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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“…The portion of the northern subbasins in the NHPA of this study in the Sand Hills region are characterized by a large saturated thickness of 300 m or more, minimal surface or groundwater irrigation, and annual recharge from precipitation (McGuire et al 2009; Peterson et al 2016). In contrast, regions in the central and southern Platte and Republican River Basins subbasins of the NPHA are characterized by larger depths to groundwater where streams are more likely disconnected from the underlying aquifer.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The NHPA is an extensive groundwater resource that spans nearly 250,000 km 2 and underlies five states: South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas (Figure 2) (Peterson et al 2016). The NHPA is a region of national interest because drought and groundwater pumping within regions of the basin result in groundwater level declines of up to 30 m (McGuire 2014, 2017; McGuire et al 2009).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The USGS High Plains Regional Aquifer‐System Analysis reported the high degree of spatial variability in groundwater levels encompassed in the region by a system of complex aquifers. As a result of the existing river hydrography and declining groundwater levels below stream level, the assumption underlying the NWM that streamflow losses do not exist is not realistic for the NHPA (Peterson et al 2016), and the impact of ignoring this mechanism will be quantified here.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of Groundwater‐Surface Water Exchange Mechanism in the National Water Model over the Northern High Plains Aquifer, USA

Jachens

Hutcheson

Thomas

et al. 2020

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Surface water and groundwater are intimately connected by a two‐way flux between the stream and underlying aquifers. The National Water Model (NWM) currently only considers a one‐way flux, where groundwater can enter a stream but cannot return to the aquifer. The Northern High Plains Aquifer, USA is used as a case study to investigate the consequences of omitting two‐way stream–aquifer fluxes on streamflow prediction capabilities of the NWM during hydrologic extremes. Instead of traditional field techniques to identify stream–aquifer fluxes, this study presents an integrated approach to classify likely stream regimes using three identification methods: United States Geological Survey (USGS) gage data, simulated stream–aquifer fluxes from an existing USGS Groundwater Availability Model, and the normalized difference vegetation index from remote sensing. For flood events, the modeled flood response for losing streams is characterized by statistically significant earlier peak discharges and an overestimate of the observed flood volume when compared to gaining streams. For drought events, our study found no statistical difference between losing and gaining streams, however, modeled streamflow from the NWM overestimated the observed USGS hydrograph. The systematic overestimate of streamflow by the NWM could be, in part, due to the lack of a losing stream mechanism which was on average 0.1% streamflow loss per streamwise km along the river.

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“…Future groundwater levels can be predicted by physically based numerical models that integrate complex climatic and hydrogeologic processes ( e.g ., Clark and Hart, ; Faunt, ; Peterson et al ., ). Groundwater‐level responses to seasonal variability and longer term changes can be difficult to predict in physically based models because of uncertain hydrogeologic properties and both nonlinear and lagged relations between system inputs and outputs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Forecasting the Probability of Future Groundwater Levels Declining Below Specified Low Thresholds in the Conterminous U.S.

Dudley

Hodgkins

Dickinson

2017

J American Water Resour Assoc

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We present a logistic regression approach for forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining or maintaining below specific groundwater-level thresholds. We tested our approach on 102 groundwater wells in different climatic regions and aquifers of the United States that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network. We evaluated the importance of current groundwater levels, precipitation, streamflow, seasonal variability, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and atmosphere/ocean indices for developing the logistic regression equations. Several diagnostics of model fit were used to evaluate the regression equations, including testing of autocorrelation of residuals, goodness-of-fit metrics, and bootstrap validation testing. The probabilistic predictions were most successful at wells with high persistence (low monthto-month variability) in their groundwater records and at wells where the groundwater level remained below the defined low threshold for sustained periods (generally three months or longer). The model fit was weakest at wells with strong seasonal variability in levels and with shorter duration low-threshold events. We identified challenges in deriving probabilistic-forecasting models and possible approaches for addressing those challenges.

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Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

Cited by 14 publications

References 18 publications

Comparison of Groundwater Storage Changes From GRACE Satellites With Monitoring and Modeling of Major U.S. Aquifers

Comparison of Groundwater Storage Changes From GRACE Satellites With Monitoring and Modeling of Major U.S. Aquifers

Effects of Groundwater‐Surface Water Exchange Mechanism in the National Water Model over the Northern High Plains Aquifer, USA

Forecasting the Probability of Future Groundwater Levels Declining Below Specified Low Thresholds in the Conterminous U.S.

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