Increasing the depth
of mining leads to the location of the mine
pit below the groundwater level. The entry of groundwater into the
mining pit increases costs as well as reduces efficiency and the level
of work safety. Prediction of the groundwater level is a useful tool
for managing groundwater resources in the mining area. In this study,
to predict the groundwater level, multilayer perceptron, cascade forward,
radial basis function, and generalized regression neural network models
were developed. Moreover, four optimization algorithms, including
Bayesian regularization, Levenberg–Marquardt, resilient backpropagation,
and scaled conjugate gradient, are used to improve the performance
and prediction ability of the multilayer perception and cascade forward
neural networks. More than 1377 data points including 12 spatial parameters
divided into two categories of sediments and bedrock (longitude, latitude,
hydraulic conductivity of sediments and bedrock, effective porosity
of sediments and bedrock, the electrical resistivity of sediments
and bedrock, depth of sediments, surface level, bedrock level, and
fault), and besides, 6 temporal parameters are used (day, month, year,
drainage, evaporation, and rainfall). Also, to determine the best
models and combine them, 165 extra validation data points are used.
After identifying the best models from the three candidate models
with a lower average absolute relative error (AARE) value, the committee
machine intelligence system (CMIS) model has been developed. The proposed
CMIS model predicts groundwater level data with high accuracy with
an AARE value of less than 0.11%. Sensitivity analysis indicates that
the electrical resistivity of sediments had the highest effect on
the groundwater level. Outliers’ estimation applying the Leverage
approach suggested that only 2% of the data points could be doubtful.
Eventually, the results of modeling and estimating groundwater level
fluctuations with low error indicate the high accuracy of machine
learning methods that can be a good alternative to numerical modeling
methods such as MODFLOW.