Group identification, uncertainty, and the duration of genocide and politicide

Abstract

Episodes of genocide and politicide show remarkable variation in how long they last. Some end within months; others continue for decades. Why do some persist while others end soon after they start? I argue that uncertainty influences the duration of killing. When a government has difficulty identifying members of a target group, it is less certain that it has accomplished its violent goals vis-à-vis the group. Therefore, the more uncertain the government is about the source of the threat it faces, the longer its killing will last. Statistical analysis of all episodes of genocide and politicide from 1955 to 2011 supports these claims.

An Informational Theory of Genocide and Politicide During Civil War

“…While such individual-level uncertainty is surely important to the government’s decision to commit atrocity, such individuals tend to fight the government as a rebel group . Thus, the nature of bargaining between the government and a group is likely also influenced by uncertainty about certain characteristics of the groups that can provide much new insight into the causes and consequences of genocide and politicide (see Uzonyi, 2020). I believe there is much fruitful research to be done understanding the interaction between individual and group-level uncertainty and how this influences the government’s choice of strategies during conflict.…”

Leader Tenure, Genocide, and Politicide During Civil War

“…By focusing on the informational mechanism of leader tenure, I am able to further connect literatures focused on domestic and international political violence (see Uzonyi 2020). Valentino (2004) argues that genocidal violence is a final solution for a government that finds itself out of policymaking room.…”