Group threat and voter turnout: Evidence from a refugee placement program

Abstract

We study the impact of refugee inflows on voter turnout in Sweden in a period when shifting immigration patterns made the previously homogeneous country increasingly heterogeneous. Analyzing individual-level panel data and exploiting a national refugee placement program to obtain plausibly exogenous variation in immigration, we find that refugee inflows significantly raise the probability of voter turnout. Balancing tests on initial turnout as well as placebo tests regressing changes in turnout on future refugee inflows support the causal interpretation of our findings. The results are consistent with group-threat theory, which predicts that increased out-group presence spurs political mobilization among in-group members.