The population dynamics of the Grass rat Arvicanthis niloticus were studied in relation to their diet and the climate in the Nakuru district of Kenya between September 1980 and May 1982. Numbers in the study area were low at the end of 1980 with groups of animals isolated in patches of grassy habitat. Local populations declined and some became extinct during the first half of 1981. Breeding began in April, one month after the start of the rains, but with a small initial population and high juvenile mortality, numbers did not increase significantly until September, when animals born earlier in the season were old enough to reproduce. This second generation reproduction was probably very important to the survival of the population over the following dry season when adult mortality was estimated at 15% per month.
Reproduction was facilitated by a nutritious diet, consisting mainly of young grasses early in the season and seeds later on. Seed production was itself related to rainfall and as that declined towards the end of 1981, breeding ceased. Arvicanthis were considerably more numerous then than one year previously, with the difference being ascribed to the longer rainy season experienced in 1981 than 1980. The density of animals in favourable habitats increased with immigration from less suitable areas between January and March 1982, and then declined until the end of the study. Breeding resumed in April, one month after the start of the rains.
Peak numbers of Arvicanthis were recorded in the middle of the dry season, when few crops were in the ground. They would only become a serious pest to agriculture if they were still abundant at the start of the breeding season some months later. Expansion then could result in very high numbers by harvest time, in August or September.