Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW.
Non--Technical SummaryGood policy advice, in addition to requiring sound theoretical frameworks to identify growth--enhancing fiscal reforms, also needs a reliable evidence base. Much of this evidence base has tradi--tionally come from applications of econometric methods to various fiscal aggregates. However, con--cerns have recently been raised over the merits of this type of evidence for policy reform advice in practice; see, for example, Rodrik (2005), Hausmann et al. (2008a). It seems therefore useful to ques--tion whether business perception data included for instance in the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) are a useful additional source of information to guide policy makers' choices. These surveys contain ratings of various factors regarded as 'obstacles' or 'constraints' on firms' growth perfor--mance as identified by firm owners or managers. With firms' investment decisions likely to be an important driver of aggregate economic growth, and these investment decisions likely to be affected by firms' perceptions, such perception indicators could potentially be a valuable source of infor--mation on actual growth constraints. Indeed, a number of authors have recently argued over the merits of such business survey information as a reliable identifier of actual constraints, and the policy reforms that might follow.The objective of this paper is to examine whether, and when, subjective perceptions of firms may be a useful source of information to help identify growth--enhancing fiscal reforms. Specifically, adopting the standard theoretical framework for the analysis of fiscal policy and long--run growth, we demon--strate that firms' perceptions can be expected to suffer from particular biases. We show that while these biases can be expected to be important for some fiscal policy reform options, they are not for others. This suggests that it is important to distinguish between the specific contexts in which such business perception information is likely to offer reliable or unreliable guidance to growth--enhancing policy reforms. The essence of our argument is that, in part because of the way business survey ques--tions are constructed, firms' responses can be expected to focus on the direct effects of policies alle--viating particular constraints that they see as obstacles, while ignoring the externalities, or indirect effects of these policies. We exploit this assumption to model firm perceptions of fiscal policy--related constraints including taxation and...