Growth dynamics and forecasting of minor millets in India: A time series analysis

Abstract

The forecasting behaviour of millet plays a critical role in production planning at the Indian farm level. This study made an effort to forecast the area and production of small millets in India with time series analysis. The performance of the forecasting models was appraised and collated by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) and Auto Correlation Function (ACF) criteria. For this analysis, the yearly data of the area and production of small millet from 1950 to 2021 were calculated. Among all Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, ARIMA (0,1,0) was found to be the best fitted for forecasting the area and production of minor millets in India since, principally, this model relies on historical ideals of the sequences in addition to earlier error relations for forecasting minor millets and it does not adopt information of any fundamental model or associations as in some other approaches. The predicted values of minor millet area showed decreased trend from 422.4 thousand hectares in the year 2022 to 409.2 thousand hectares in the year 2026. Likewise, the production under small millets declined from 393.5 thousand tons to 159.5 thousand tons for the corresponding period. Hence, production of these crops can be enhanced by suitable use of inputs and timely application of inputs, high yielding varieties, government interventions like policy support, subsidising through the Public Distribution System and awareness by the way of propaganda and demonstration.

Application and functional properties of millet starch: Wet milling extraction process and different modification approaches

“…1 (a) graphically shows the Global (1a) and India (1b) scenario of millet production between the years of 2018–2022. As the figure showed that, African continent contribute major share in millet production, with 423 lakh tonnes, followed by America (193 lakh tonnes) [ 11 , 12 ]. Asia is the 3rd main producer of millet globally (215 lakh tonnes), whereas India is the most significant contributor (80 %), followed by China (20 %) of the total production [ [8] , [9] , [10] , [11] , [12] ].…”

“…As the figure showed that, African continent contribute major share in millet production, with 423 lakh tonnes, followed by America (193 lakh tonnes) [ 11 , 12 ]. Asia is the 3rd main producer of millet globally (215 lakh tonnes), whereas India is the most significant contributor (80 %), followed by China (20 %) of the total production [ [8] , [9] , [10] , [11] , [12] ]. The UNGA ( General Assembly) declared 2023 as the International Year of Millets (IYoM) on March 5, 2021, after a motion promoted by India and supported by 72 nations.…”

“…1 (b). In India, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka are the top three Indian states for millet production [ [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] ]. Additionally, millets are referred to as “poor men's crop” and consumed globally in the form of chapati, bakery goods, idli, chiwada, flakes, rava, beverages, uppma and kitchadi and others due to containing the excellent amount of micro nutrients, dietary fibres, resistant starch, polyphenols, antioxidants and other health beneficial bioactive compounds [ 15 ].…”

Decline in the Cultivation of Minor Millets in Tamil Nadu: A Time-Series Analysis of Cultivation Area, Production, and Productivity (1952-53 to 2021-22)

“…In India, millets cultivation, especially in regions facing water scarcity, holds significant economic importance. Despite its value, millets have received less attention compared to other staple grains such as rice and wheat [1]. These grains, often referred to as "smart food," encompass qualities beneficial for individuals, the planet, and farmers.…”