Growth, Instability and Decomposition Analysis of Coconut in India and Tamil Nadu, Western Tamil Nadu, India: A Time Series Comparative Approach

Abstract

The study was undertaken to know the growth rate, instability, and contribution of area and yield on the production of coconut. The study was based on the secondary data for the period of 19 years (2001 – 2019) for India as well as Tamil Nadu. India is the leading producer of coconut globally 21.38 billion nuts and in the country, Tamil Nadu has the major share in area and production with 5.31 billion nuts. The pace of agricultural development of the country can be estimated through compound annual growth rate, instability is measured using Coppocks instability index and contribution of area and yield on production is studied using decomposition analysis. Results revealed that coconut growth is found to be positive in India as well as in Tamil Nadu, the production of coconut in the country is significantly positive (0.74 percent), but in the state, it is in decline trend (2.48 percent). The trend of productivity seems positive and similar at both the country and state level. Instability index is higher in terms of area (12.71 percent) than production (2.86 percent) and productivity (2.89 percent). Area effect was most responsible (138.2 percent and 98.3 percent) for the production of coconut than yield effect in both the country as well as the state.

Modeling and Forecasting of Milk Production in the Western Zone of Tamil Nadu

“…Exponential function was to analyse the compound growth rate, which was initially transformed into a linear form by taking the log function (Kalidas et al, 2020). The final equation for estimating the growth rate was given by,…”