GVFs in the real world: making predictions online for water treatment

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the use of reinforcement-learning based prediction approaches for a real drinking-water treatment plant. Developing such a prediction system is a critical step on the path to optimizing and automating water treatment. Before that, there are many questions to answer about the predictability of the data, suitable neural network architectures, how to overcome partial observability and more. We first describe this dataset, and highlight challenges with seasonality, nonstationarity, partial observability, and heterogeneity across sensors and operation modes of the plant. We then describe General Value Function (GVF) predictions—discounted cumulative sums of observations–and highlight why they might be preferable to classical n-step predictions common in time series prediction. We discuss how to use offline data to appropriately pre-train our temporal difference learning (TD) agents that learn these GVF predictions, including how to select hyperparameters for online fine-tuning in deployment. We find that the TD-prediction agent obtains an overall lower normalized mean-squared error than the n-step prediction agent. Finally, we show the importance of learning in deployment, by comparing a TD agent trained purely offline with no online updating to a TD agent that learns online. This final result is one of the first to motivate the importance of adapting predictions in real-time, for non-stationary high-volume systems in the real world.