Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups

Abstract

Range shifting is vital for species persistence, but there is little consensus on why individual species vary so greatly in the rates at which their ranges have shifted in response to recent climate warming. Here, using 40 years of distribution data for 291 species from 13 invertebrate taxa in Britain, we show that interactions between habitat availability and exposure to climate change at the range margins explain up to half of the variation in rates of range shift. Habitat generalists expanded faster than more specialised species, but this intrinsic trait explains less of the variation in range shifts than habitat availability, which additionally depends on extrinsic factors that may be rare or widespread at the range margin. Similarly, while climate change likely underlies polewards expansions, we find that more of the between-species variation is explained by differences in habitat availability than by changes in climatic suitability. A model that includes both habitat and climate, and their statistical interaction, explains the most variation in range shifts. We conclude that climate-change vulnerability assessments should focus as much on future habitat availability as on climate sensitivity and exposure, with the expectation that habitat restoration and protection will substantially improve species’ abilities to respond to uncertain future climates.

Agri‐environment conservation set‐asides have co‐benefits for connectivity

“…UKCEH Biological Records Centre data), specifically examining changes in landscape occupancy and rates of range expansion in relation to local set‐aside availability. Our range expansion results do align with empirical assessments of distributional shifts within the UK which highlight the importance of additional habitat at the leading edge of expansions for a diverse range of taxa including grassland flying insects (Platts et al ), and that for certain species, small amounts of extra habitat can have big effects on range expansion (Hill et al ).National AES programs are expensive and environmental subsidies should be carefully designed to make best use of public funds. In testing how well the existing distribution of set‐aside strips fares against alternative strategies of spatial distribution, we found that altering the aggregation or area of set‐aside strips could substantially improve range expansion, but there was no clear consensus on which strategy was universally better.…”

“…Range shifts in response to climate change are well documented (Walther et al , Chen et al ) and habitat availability has been shown to be a key factor influencing rates of range shifting (Hill et al 1999, Platts et al ). Integrating stepping‐stone habitat within landscapes has been identified as an effective way of facilitating range shifts (Hodgson et al , Saura et al , Hannah et al ) and our study shows that agri‐environment options such as set‐aside field margin strips can serve this stepping‐stone function for dispersal‐limited species.…”

Insects and recent climate change

“…The challenge for researchers with long-term data is to develop statistical models that encompass interactions rather than focusing only on main effects that might be easier to interpret. A notable example of modeling interactions in the context of global change comes from a recent study of British insects, where researchers found that the most successful model for poleward range shifts included habitat availability, exposure to climate change, and the interaction between the two (25).…”

Consistent population declines but idiosyncratic range shifts in Alpine orchids under global change

“…As a result, climate warming may cause a spatial mismatch between suitable climatic conditions and habitat availability [19][20][21] . Under these circumstances, habitat distribution and quality are expected to play a central role in explaining local population dynamics and climate-induced range shifts [22][23][24][25][26] , in particular for specialist, rare and threatened species whose range shift dynamics are likely to be most sensitive to the elevational distribution of suitable habitats.…”