Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models

Grise, Kevin M.; Davis, Sean

doi:10.5194/acp-20-5249-2020

Cited by 107 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 76 publications

(106 reference statements)

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“…Our results are consistent with the projected changes in the intensity and the poleward extension of the anticyclonic high-pressure system of the Subtropical Pacific Ocean (Fahad et al, 2020), which has a significant influence in the Andean hydroclimate. Using the SSP5-8.5 high-emissions scenario, Grise and Davis (2020) found a poleward expansion in the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation that is outside the range natural variability since the year 2000, highlighting the role of anthropogenic forcings in the dynamics of projected precipitation decline over CWA.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…2020)-considering reanalyses and models (Solomon et al, 2016;Davis and Birner, 2017;Waugh et al, 2018). The metrics were calculated using the Tropical-width Diagnostics (TropD) code package (Adam et al, 2018) applied to the zonally and time average wind field (Grise and Davis, 2020). Figure 9 shows the projected changes in the poleward expansion of the Hadley Circulation based on the SLP and UAS metrics for the periods when the temperature anomaly is projected to reach 1.5 and 2 • C above preindustrial levels along the Andes region with respect to the 1981-2010 baseline.…”

Section: Hadley Circulation Expansion As a Driver Of The Future Andeamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water Resources Change in Central-Western Argentina Under the Paris Agreement Warming Targets

2020

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This study documents the projected changes in several components (precipitation, runoff, snow cover and depth, soil moisture) of the hydrological cycle in Central-Western Argentina (CWA) based on the simulations from the IPSL-CM6A-LR model for the warming levels proposed in the Paris Agreement. These warming levels represent the future increase in mean annual temperature of 1.5 and 2°C compared to pre-industrial conditions. A novel regional approach, that uses a set of low-emissions shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) compatible with the Paris Agreement goals, has been applied here for the evaluation of the potential impacts of temperature increase in both the mountainous areas of the Andes and the lowlands on the eastern portion of CWA. Our results show that the timing of reaching the 1.5°C warming level would be between 2032 and 2036 in the CWA lowlands east of the Andes, while this warming level in the Andes mountains of CWA would be 10–15 years earlier as result of the stronger warming with elevation. The higher 2°C warming level would be reached before 2050 in the Andes mountains. Even using the more aggressive mitigation pathways available in the scientific literature (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6), the IPSL-CM6A-LR model ensemble shows a robust drying signal in the wintertime precipitation over the Andes mountains, which is a concerning result because it implies a reduction of the already scarce water resources draining to the adjacent semi-arid foothills. Our results also show that this drying should be linked to the poleward expansion of the Hadley Circulation. In the lowlands farther east from the Andes, the summertime monsoonal precipitation provides the water resources that are projected to increase under the selected emissions pathways. The expected changes in the analyzed components of the hydrological cycle would be strengthened under the 2°C warming level, particularly the decline of snow amount and surface runoff in the Andes. The results of this study provide insights into the expected impacts of the 1.5 and 2°C warming levels in the CWA regional water resources, which may set the stage for the new discussions of possible options to mitigate them at country and regional levels.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Hadley Circulation Expansion As a Driver Of The Future Andeamentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Resources Change in Central-Western Argentina Under the Paris Agreement Warming Targets

2020

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“…Furthermore, a combination of GHG and ozone forcing might be important in the SH; however, to date, in the NH a clear anthropogenic signal has not yet emerged (Amaya et al 2017;Grise et al 2019;Grise and Davis 2020). It is worth noting that in model simulations under a CO2…”

Section: Tropical Expansionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability and Changes to the Mean Meridional Circulation in Isentropic Coordinates

Lucas

Rudeva

Nguyen

et al. 2021

Preprint

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We examine the climatology, variability and change in the global mean meridional circulation (MMC) as measured in a dry isentropic coordinate system from 1979–2017 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The methodology presents a zonal-mean view of the MMC as a single thermally direct circulation cell in each hemisphere. The circulation is decomposed into 'steady' and 'transient' components which allows us to identify and quantify several MMC features, including the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the descending branches of the Hadley circulation and a 'transient updraft' associated with the extratropical storm track. Large changes were identified in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in both the Hadley Cell and the extratropical storm track in the late-1990s. These changes intertwine with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation that changed from a warm to a cold phase around 2000. Less significant changes were observed in the Northern Hemisphere, although high rates of tropical expansion during boreal summer may have been exacerbated by volcanic eruptions in the 1980s and 1990s. Further to those changes, tropical expansion was observed in autumn, with little change in the extratropical storm track. While potential inhomogeneities in the reanalysis limit the certainty about the magnitude of the identified changes, multiple non-reanalysis-based datasets suggest that large changes did occur in the 1990s in the SH, supporting the presented analysis.

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“…The CMIP data are obtained from climate change reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and provide important references. They have been widely used in the fields of meteorology (Priestley et al, 2020;Zhu et al, 2020), hydrology (Almazroui et al, 2020), ocean research (Grise and Davis, 2020) and others. The CMIP6 datasets included 11 models obtained under four climate change scenarios in 2015-2065 ( Table 1).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Variability and Future Evolution of Snowfall Trends in the Huaihe River Basin Under Climate Change

Dong

Zhu

et al. 2020

Front. Earth Sci.

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Global warming changes the characteristics of regional climate and crop growth environments and affects human production and life in the long term. In this study, historical snowfall observation data from 199 conventional meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin were analyzed with the climate trend method, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and the sliding t test to determine the variability and abrupt changes in climate trends in the Huaihe River Basin during 1951-2018. Then, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 datasets were used to analyze the evolutionary trend of snowfall under four climate change scenarios in 2015-2065. The results show the following: 1) Due to climate warming, both the historical data and the simulated data under different climate change scenarios show declining snowfall in the Huaihe River Basin. 2) Based on the analysis of historical data from meteorological stations, the snow events had a clear latitudinal distribution-the higher the latitude, the lower the occurrence of snow events. In contrast, as shown by the analysis results obtained under different climate change scenarios, the snow mass flux had a clear longitudinal distribution-the higher the longitude, the higher the snow mass flux. 3) In Scenario SSP370, 2050 is important because the snowfall changes from decreasing to increasing, and in 2065, the snowfall in most areas of the basin is greater than that in 2050. Furthermore, the snowfall along the southeastern coast of the basin has the greatest variability.

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Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models

Cited by 107 publications

References 76 publications

Water Resources Change in Central-Western Argentina Under the Paris Agreement Warming Targets

Water Resources Change in Central-Western Argentina Under the Paris Agreement Warming Targets

Variability and Changes to the Mean Meridional Circulation in Isentropic Coordinates

Analysis of the Variability and Future Evolution of Snowfall Trends in the Huaihe River Basin Under Climate Change

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