Haldane’s asymptotics for slightly supercritical processes

Abstract

Analysing survival or fixation probabilities for a beneficial allele is a prominent task in the field of theoretical population genetics. Haldane's asymptotics is an approximation for the fixation probability in the case of a single beneficial mutant with small selective advantage in a large population. In this thesis we analyse the interplay between genetic drift and directional selection and prove Haldane's asymptotics in different settings: For the fixation probability in Cannings models with moderate selection and for the survival probability of a slightly supercritical branching processes in a random environment. In Chapter 3 we introduce a class of Cannings models with selection that allow for a forward and backward construction. In particular, a Cannings ancestral selection process can be defined for this class of models, which counts the number of potential parents and is in sampling duality to the forward frequency process. By means of this duality the probability of fixation can be expressed through the expectation of the Cannings ancestral selection process in stationarity. A control of this expectation yields that the fixation probability fulfils Haldane's asymptotics in a regime of moderately weak selection (Thm. 8). In Chapter 4 we study the fixation probability of Cannings models in a regime of moderately strong selection. Here couplings of the frequency process of beneficial individuals with slightly supercritical Galton-Watson processes imply that the fixation probability is given by Haldane's asymptotics (Thm. 9). Lastly, in Chapter 5 we consider slightly supercritical branching processes in an independent and identically distributed random environment and study the probability of survival as the number of expected offspring tends from above to one. We show that only if variance and expectation of the random offspring mean are of the same order the random environment has a non-trivial influence on the probability of survival, which results in a modification of Haldane's asymptotics. Out of the critical parameter regime the population goes extinct or survives with a probability that fulfils Haldane's asymptotics (Thm. 10). The proof establishes an expression for the survival probability in terms of the shape function of the random offspring generating functions. This expression exhibits similarities to perpetuities known from a financial context. Consequently, we prove a limiting theorem for perpetuities with vanishing interest rates (Thm. 11).