Ham Petrol ve Benzin Fiyatlarının Sanayi Üretimine Etkisi: MS-VAR Modelleri ile Analizi

Özdemir, Selin; Akgül, Işıl

doi:10.21121/eab.2015317975

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Among the studies conducted on the Turkish economy, Özdemir and Akgül (2015) investigated the industrial production index and the changes in oil prices with Markov Exchange Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) models using the monthly data of 2005:10-2014:02. As a result of the study, they found that oil and gasoline prices impacted industrial production.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship Between Industrial Production Index, Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in the Turkish Economy

Karadağ¹

2021

jepr

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Countries trying to increase their production in the industrial sector wish to have access to cheap energy. However, a rise in oil prices affects the industrial production of countries dependent on oil. Furthermore, as production costs increase, the general level of prices also increases. This study aims to examine the long-term effects of the rise in oil prices on the industrial production index and the CPI in the Turkish economy. Since the study measures the impact of Brent crude oil prices on the industrial production index and CPI for the Turkish economy, it contributes to the literature. In this respect, the study investigated the relationships among the specified variables for the 2010: Q1-2020: Q4 period of the Turkish economy. Phillips-Ouliaris cointegration test and Granger and Bootstrap causality test were used to analyze the relationship among the variables. A long-term relationship was found between the variables. According to the results of both causality tests, it was determined that the rise in oil prices raised the CPI by increasing the cost of industrial production in the Turkish economy. The findings show that oil prices should be monitored closely by actors of economic management.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship Between Industrial Production Index, Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in the Turkish Economy

Karadağ¹

2021

jepr

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“…Türkiye'de ham petrol ve benzin fiyatlarının sanayi üretimi üzerindeki etkilerini araştıran bir diğer çalışma Özdemir ve Akgül (2015) tarafından yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmada ham petrol ve benzin fiyatlarının sanayi üretimine etkisi MS-VAR analizi yardımıyla 2005-2014 dönemi için incelenmiştir Özdemir ve Akgül (2015). çalışmasında dönemi iki farklı döneme ayırmış ve sanayi üretim endeksi ile petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimin bu dönemlerde farklı özellikler gösterdiği sonucuna varmışlardır.…”

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Petrole Bağımlı Ülkelerde Petrol Fiyatlarının Sanayi Üretimine Etkisi: Panel Nedensellik Çalışması

Gündogan¹

2019

eab

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Tarihte yaşanan petrol krizleri incelendiğinde petrol fiyatlarında yaşanan şokun öncelikle tüketim ve yatırım mallarına olan talebi azaltması yolu ile ülke gelirini etkilediği görülmektedir (Hamilton,1988). Bunun yanı sıra petrol imalat sanayiinde hem üretim girdisi hem de enerji kaynağı olarak önemli girdilerdendir. Buna bağlı olarak petrol talebi her geçen gün artarken petrol arzının sınırlı olması gelecekte petrol fiyatlarının artması sonucunu doğurmaktadır. Petrol fiyatlarının artması petrol ithal eden ülkelerde döviz rezervlerinin azalması yoluyla ülkelerin cari işlemler dengesini etkilediği gibi önemli bir maliyet unsuru olmasından dolayı reel sektörü de büyük ölçüde etkilemektedir.

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A new look at asymmetric effect of oil price changes on inflation: Evidence from Malaysia

Sek

2022

Energy & Environment

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The existing literature that examined the effect of oil price on domestic price inflation only focused on consumer price at an aggregate level. The studies that focused on producer and production levels, and based on disaggregated data are very lack. Besides, previous studies also mainly applied the linear regression approach in studying the effect of oil price. This study seeks to explore the mentioned issues by focusing on sectoral consumer (CPI), industrial (IPI), and producer (PPI) prices of Malaysia. The Markov-switching (MS) regression technique is applied. The models are innovated by incorporating the asymmetric effects of oil price changes. The results reveal different reactions of sectoral domestic price inflation to oil price changes. The oil price has asymmetric effects on domestic price inflation with higher impacts on industrial and producer prices than the consumer price. The effect is larger in sectors that have higher linkages with oil/ energy resources. These sectors are oil-intensive and are sensitive to oil price changes. Among these sectors are the CPI transportation sector, IPI manufacturing, and electrical sectors as well as PPI fuel, chemicals, and manufacturing sectors. However, oil is not the main factor causes to domestic inflation. The main determinants of inflation are real exchange rate, aggregate supply, and demand. Besides, the policy decisions are also influential on price stability. The sectors of CPI transportation, PPI animals & vegetable oils, and PPI fuel have a high tendency to increase prices and should be well-monitored.

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Ham Petrol ve Benzin Fiyatlarının Sanayi Üretimine Etkisi: MS-VAR Modelleri ile Analizi

Cited by 8 publications

References 8 publications

The Relationship Between Industrial Production Index, Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in the Turkish Economy

The Relationship Between Industrial Production Index, Oil Prices and Consumer Price Index in the Turkish Economy

Petrole Bağımlı Ülkelerde Petrol Fiyatlarının Sanayi Üretimine Etkisi: Panel Nedensellik Çalışması

A new look at asymmetric effect of oil price changes on inflation: Evidence from Malaysia

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