Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Thailand: A Comprehensive Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics

Verma, Suraj; Razzaque, Mohammad A.; Sangtongdee, Usanut; Arpnikanondt, C; Tassaneetrithep, Boonrat; Paratthakonkun, Chirawat; Soonthornworasiri, Ngamphol

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-77402/v1

“…HFMD usually breaks out from June to August in Thailand [53], cases of HFMD increased during the rainy season in Vietnam [54]. However, the seasonal patterns observed in temperate, tropical, and subtropical Asia are different [55].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal cluster patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the province level in mainland China, 2011-2018

Yuan-zhe¹,

Wang²,

Zhao³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Although three monovalent EV-A71 vaccines have been launched in mainland China since 2016, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) still causes a considerable disease burden in China. Vaccines’ use may change the epidemiological characters of HFMD. All HFMD cases’ data from January 2011 to December 2018 were obtained from the public health science data center given by the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan statistics analysis were used to explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of this disease at the provincial level in mainland China. Interrupted time series (ITS) was used to analyze the impact of the EV-A71 vaccine on the incidence of HFMD. This study found that the median annual incidence of HFMD was 153.78 per 100,000 (ranging from 120.79 to 205.06) in mainland China from 2011 to 2018. Two peaks of infections were observed per year. Children 5 years and under were the main morbid population. The global autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern in each year (P < 0.001), and the local autocorrelation analysis indicated that the high incidence areas were clustered in the southern and southeastern coastal provinces. The distribution of HFMD cases was clustered in time and space. The range of cluster time was between April and October. The most likely cluster appeared in the southern coastal provinces (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan) from 2011 to 2017 and in the southeastern coastal provinces (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) in 2018. It is necessary to advance the EV-A71 vaccination plan, analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of different enterovirus pathogens of HFMD, and promote HFMD multivalent vaccines. The results can provide the basis for implementing effective disease prevention and control policies.

show abstract

“…HFMD usually breaks out from June to August in Thailand [53], cases of HFMD increased during the rainy season in Vietnam [54]. However, the seasonal patterns observed in temperate, tropical, and subtropical Asia are different [55].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Cluster Patterns of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the Province level in Mainland China, 2009-2018

Wu

¹

,

Wang

²

,

Zhao

³

et al. 2022

Preprint

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundAlthough three monovalent EV-A71 vaccines have been launched in mainland China since 2016, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) still causes a considerable disease burden in China. Vaccines’ use may change the epidemiological characters of HFMD. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal cluster of HFMD at the province level in mainland China from 2009 to 2018 and compare the difference before and after the vaccines were launched. MethodsAll HFMD cases’ data from January 2009 to December 2018 were obtained from the public health science data center given by the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan statistics analysis were used to explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of this disease at the provincial level in mainland China. ResultsThe median annual incidence of HFMD was 143.22 per 100,000 (ranging from 87.01 to 205.06) in mainland China from 2009 to 2018. Two peaks of infections were observed per year. Children 5 years and under were the main morbid population. The global autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern in each year (P<0.001), and the local autocorrelation analysis indicated that the high incidence areas were clustered in the southern and southeastern coastal provinces. The distribution of HFMD cases was clustered in time and space. The range of cluster time was between April and October. The most likely cluster appeared in the southern coastal provinces (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan) from 2010 to 2017 and in the southeastern coastal provinces (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) in 2018. ConclusionChanges in the spatiotemporal cluster of HFMD after the launch of EV-A71 vaccines were observed at the province level in mainland China in 2018. It is necessary to advance the EV-A71 vaccination plan, analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of different enterovirus pathogens of HFMD, and promote HFMD multivalent vaccines.

show abstract

“…Thanks are also extended to Thai Health Promotion Foundation for the support. We also acknowledge that the preprint version of this manuscript is published in Research Square [ 22 ] and is publicly available. This research was financed by the Newton Fund-Institutional Links from British Council and National Research Council of Thailand with the grant ID 643161.…”

Section: Acknowledgmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Thailand: A Comprehensive Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics

Verma

¹

,

Razzaque

²

,

Sangtongdee

³

et al. 2021

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious disease with several outbreaks in Asian-Pacific countries, including Thailand. With such epidemic characteristics and potential economic impact, HFMD is a significant public health issue in Thailand. Generally, contagious/infectious diseases’ transmission dynamics vary across geolocations due to different socioeconomic situations, demography, and lifestyles. Hence, a nationwide comprehensive model of the disease’s epidemic dynamics can provide information to understand better and predict a potential outbreak of this disease and efficiently and effectively manage its impact. However, there is no nationwide and comprehensive (i.e., the inclusion of reinfections in the model) model of HFDM dynamics for Thailand. This paper has endeavoured to promote nationwide comprehensive modelling of HFMD’s epidemic dynamics and comprehend the reinfection cases. We have formulated the SEIRS epidemiological model with dynamic vitals, including reinfections, to explore this disease’s prevalence. We also introduced periodic seasonality to reproduce the seasonal effect. The pattern of spread of this disease is uneven across the provinces in Thailand, so we used K -means clustering algorithm to cluster those provinces into three groups (i.e., highly, moderately, and least affected levels). We also analysed health records collected from district hospitals, which suggest significant reinfection cases. For example, we found that 11% (approximately) of infectious patients return for repeat treatment within the study period. We also performed sensitivity analysis which indicates that the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) is sensitive to the rate of transmission ( β ) and the rate at which infected people recover ( γ ). By fitting the model with HFMD confirmed data for the provinces in each cluster, the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) was estimated to be 2.643, 1.91, and 3.246 which are greater than 1. Based on this high R 0 , this study recommends that this disease will persist in the coming years under identical cultural and environmental conditions.

show abstract

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Thailand: A Comprehensive Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics

Cited by 3 publications

References 9 publications

Spatiotemporal cluster patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the province level in mainland China, 2011-2018

Spatiotemporal cluster patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the province level in mainland China, 2011-2018

Spatiotemporal Cluster Patterns of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the Province level in Mainland China, 2009-2018

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Thailand: A Comprehensive Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About