Handling uncertain decisions in whole process design

Hodgett, Richard; Martin, E.B.; Montague, G.A.; Talford, Mark

doi:10.1080/09537287.2013.798706

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The complexity involved with the implementation of whole process design requires decision-making, often with limited or uncertain information. A survey sent to management in the speciality chemical and pharmaceutical industries who utilise whole process design identified that the majority (69%) of respondents would spare an hour (or even less) for decision making tasks, and many respondents (89%) prefered to have a decision-making system that guides the user in the right direction quickly, as opposed to those producing exact results but with a very long entry procedure (Hodgett, et al, 2014). These findings meant that a decision-making methodology was needed that could handle uncertain information but could also be used quickly.…”

Section: Overview and Limitations Of Multi-attribute Range Evaluationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The choice of normalisation procedure has been shown to affect the outcome of a MCDM method (Çelen, 2014;Gardziejczyk & Zabicki, 2017) and limiting the number of potential normalisation procedures available is a weakness of the MARE methodology. Especially considering the most widely applied normalisation approach of summation ratio normalisation isn t compatible with MARE (Hodgett, et al, 2014).…”

Section: Overview and Limitations Of Multi-attribute Range Evaluationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this context, Multi-Attribute Range Evaluations (MARE) (Hodgett, et al, 2014) is recomended for handling uncertain decisions. Although MARE was primarily proposed for decision-making in whole process design in the manufacturing industry, the technique is applicable to any decision problem involving multiple criteria and uncertainty.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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SURE: A method for decision-making under uncertainty

Hodgett

Siraj

2019

Expert Systems with Applications

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Managerial decision-making often involves the consideration of multiple criteria with high levels of uncertainty. Multi-attribute utility theory, a primary method proposed for decision-making under uncertainty, has been repeatedly shown to be difficult to use in practice. This paper presents a novel approach termed Simulated Uncertainty Range Evaluations (SURE) to aid decision makers in the presence of high levels of uncertainty. SURE has evolved from an existing method that has been applied extensively in the pharmaceutical and speciality chemical sectors involving uncertain decisions in whole process design. The new method utilises simulations based upon triangular distributions to create a plot which visualises the preferences and overlapping uncertainties of decision alternatives. It facilitates decisionmakers to visualise the not-so-obvious uncertainties of decision alternatives. In a real-world case study for a large pharmaceutical company, SURE was compared to other widely-used methods for decision-making and was the only method that correctly identified the alternative eventually chosen by the company. The case study demonstrates that SURE can perform better than other existing methods for decision-making involving multiple criteria and uncertainty.

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Section: Overview and Limitations Of Multi-attribute Range Evaluationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overview and Limitations Of Multi-attribute Range Evaluationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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SURE: A method for decision-making under uncertainty

Hodgett

Siraj

2019

Expert Systems with Applications

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“…Although a case study utilising MARE was discussed by (Hodgett, et al, 2014) no comparison was made against other prominent MCDM methods. Therefore, AHP and ELECTRE III were chosen to benchmark the efficiency of each methods' ability to provide meaningful results and in handling uncertainty.…”

Section: Methods Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…by (Hodgett, et al, 2014 Figure 4 and displayed to the user. At this stage, a sensitivity study can be conducted, a report can be generated or a file containing the decision information can be saved.…”

Section: Create Decision Filementioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of multi-criteria decision-making methods for equipment selection

Hodgett

2015

Int J Adv Manuf Technol

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A software framework which incorporates Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Multi- Attribute Range Evaluations (MARE) and ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalité trois (ELECTRE III) was developed and distributed to a technology manager at Fujifilm ImagingColorants Ltd (FFIC). The manager, within a team of nine people examined the same decision problem using the three decision analysis methods. The results of the study are examined in respect to assessing each methods ability to provide accurate representations of the decision-makers' preferences and the ability to comprehend the uncertainty present. The decision-makers' identified MARE as their preferred method, AHP was found to be comparatively more time-consuming and showed the highest variation of results while ELECTRE III was unable to provide a conclusive best result.

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Continuous manufacturing technologies in upstream pharmaceutical supply chains: Combining engineering and managerial criteria

Aulakh

Settanni

Srai

2021

Multi Criteria Decision Anal

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The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in upstream pharmaceutical supply chains (PSC). One is that the global supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) is overly dependent on few locations and large-scale batch manufacturing. Regulators hope to enable more dependable location decisions and improved processing quality with the adoption of advanced technologies such as process intensification through continuous manufacturing (CM). Conceptual work suggests that the benefits of shifting from batch to CM accrue end-to-end across the PSC. Yet detailed quantitative information about CM is limited at an early stage of evaluation, and too specialised to inform managerial decisions about PSC reconfiguration. Supply chain and engineering criteria are rarely combined in the early-stage evaluation of alternative CM technologies. Extant CM research typically overlooks implications for supply chain managers. To address the current gap, this article evaluates, at an early stage of adoption, alternative CM reactor technologies for the synthesis of APIs in selected therapeutic areas. With evidence from secondary data, relevant technologies and criteria are identified, and their relative importance is evaluated in a semi-quantitative fashion following analytical hierarchy process (AHP) principles, ensuring that findings are intelligible to both engineers and managers. The proposed empirical work enriches previous conceptual frameworks predicated on volume-variety considerations. Specifically, findings suggest that, all things considered, microreactor technologies outperform alternatives. However, PSC managerial considerations introduce nuances in specific therapeutic areas, for example, antivirals where a tension between complex chemistry and the need for flexibility in unit operations may favour batch manufacturing. For analgesics the need to exploit the existing manufacturing base whilst addressing inventory reduction favours technologies that incorporate elements of batch and CM. The proposed analysis is in line with real-world decisions that global medicines manufacturers are increasingly facing, as governments seek to develop local health countermeasures to the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of detailed information.Parminder Kaur Aulakh was with the University of Cambridge at the time this research was carried out.

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Handling uncertain decisions in whole process design

Cited by 9 publications

References 16 publications

SURE: A method for decision-making under uncertainty

SURE: A method for decision-making under uncertainty

Comparison of multi-criteria decision-making methods for equipment selection

Continuous manufacturing technologies in upstream pharmaceutical supply chains: Combining engineering and managerial criteria

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