Handling uncertainties of hydrological loads in flood retention planning

Schumann, Andreas; Nijssen, David; Pahlow, Markus

doi:10.1080/15715124.2010.512561

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In addition, any ensemble simulation also encompasses other uncertainty sources of the modelling chain, such as those resulting from the weather generator, from the structure of the selected hydrological model, from the prediction of very rare flood events, etc. (Lamb and Kay, 2004;Schumann et al, 2010;Kundzewicz et al, 2017). To assess individual contributions of interest, a simple sensitivity analysis based on the variance variability could be recommended here, in which one uncertainty source is propagated through the method at once while other sources are kept at their mode or median values and in which the resulting PI spread is compared.…”

Section: Limitations and Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods

Sikorska‐Senoner

Schaefli

Seibert

2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. For extreme-flood estimation, simulation-based approaches represent an interesting alternative to purely statistical approaches, particularly if hydrograph shapes are required. Such simulation-based methods are adapted within continuous simulation frameworks that rely on statistical analyses of continuous streamflow time series derived from a hydrological model fed with long precipitation time series. These frameworks are, however, affected by high computational demands, particularly if floods with return periods > 1000 years are of interest or if modelling uncertainty due to different sources (meteorological input or hydrological model) is to be quantified. Here, we propose three methods for reducing the computational requirements for the hydrological simulations for extreme-flood estimation so that long streamflow time series can be analysed at a reduced computational cost. These methods rely on simulation of annual maxima and on analysing their simulated range to downsize the hydrological parameter ensemble to a small number suitable for continuous simulation frameworks. The methods are tested in a Swiss catchment with 10 000 years of synthetic streamflow data simulated thanks to a weather generator. Our results demonstrate the reliability of the proposed downsizing methods for robust simulations of rare floods with uncertainty. The methods are readily transferable to other situations where ensemble simulations are needed.

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Section: Limitations and Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods

Sikorska‐Senoner

Schaefli

Seibert

2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In addition, any ensemble simulation also encompasses other uncertainty sources of the modeling chain, such as resulting from the weather generator or from the structure of the selected hydrological model, from the prediction of very rare flood events, etc. (Lamb and Kay, 2004;Schumann et al, 2010;Kundzewicz et al, 2017).…”

Section: Limitations and Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of extreme floods

Sikorska‐Senoner¹,

Schaefli²,

Seibert³

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. For extreme flood estimation, simulation-based approaches represent an interesting alternative to purely statistical approaches, particularly if hydrograph shapes are required. Such simulation-based methods are adapted within continuous simulation frameworks that rely on statistical analyses of continuous streamflow time series derived from a hydrologic model fed with long precipitation time series. These frameworks are, however, affected by high computational demands, particularly if floods with return periods > 1000 years are of interest or if modelling uncertainty due to different sources (meteorological input or hydrologic model) is to be quantified. Here, we propose three methods for reducing the computational requirements for the hydrological simulations for extreme flood estimation, so that long streamflow time series can be analysed at a reduced computational cost. These methods rely on simulation of annual maxima and on analyzing their simulated range to downsize the hydrological parameter ensemble to a small number suitable for continuous simulation frameworks. The methods are tested in a Swiss catchment with 10 000 years of synthetic streamflow data simulated with a weather generator. Our results demonstrate the reliability of the proposed downsizing methods for robust simulations of extreme floods with uncertainty. The methods are readily transferable to other situations where ensemble simulations are needed.

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“…This version of the MCA is based on the principle of ideal points (Malczewski 1999). It has been used in several works (Margeta and Knezic 2002, Nijssen et al 2009, Schumann et al 2010, Sahin et al 2013, Shams et al 2014and Chitsaz and Banihabib 2015. In the first step of the method, ideal (maximum -v +1 ) and negative (minimum -v -1 ) values are determined for each criterion.…”

Section: Topsis -Technique For the Order Of Preference By Similarity To The Ideal Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the flood risk reduction alternatives in municipalities of the upper Myjava and Teplica rivers, Slovakia

Michaleje¹

2021

geogrcas

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Assessment of the flood risk reduction alternatives in municipalities of the upper Myjava and Teplica rivers, SlovakiaFlood risk management often uses multi-criteria analyses, which allow the most suitable alternatives for flood risk reduction to be chosen. We used the SAW (Simple additive weighting), AHP (Analytical hierarchy process) and TOPSIS (Technique for the order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution) methods to evaluate the alternatives in seven cadastral areas of the Upper Myjava and Teplica river basins. Economic, social, environmental, and technical criteria were chosen based on literature research. We compared the current situation (A0), alternatives proposed by watercourse administrators (A1), endangered inhabitants (A2), alternatives based on previous flood risk research (A3) and a combination of the previous (A5-A7). Most expensive alternatives include building new water structures, alternatives with lectures had the highest social impact and none of the alternatives had a significant effect on the environment. With three different sets of weights, we obtained 9 sets of results. In most cases, A3 was in the first place as the best alternative for flood risk reduction. With the TOPSIS method, the results were different. In cadastral areas where seven alternatives were compared, the A5 or A7 get first place. At the same time, we analysed the methods of selecting the most suitable alternative by watercourse managers, which showed a few shortcomings.

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Handling uncertainties of hydrological loads in flood retention planning

Cited by 6 publications

References 30 publications

Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods

Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods

Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of extreme floods

Assessment of the flood risk reduction alternatives in municipalities of the upper Myjava and Teplica rivers, Slovakia

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