Background: In the face of pressure to contain costs and make best use of scarce nurses, flexible staff deployment (floating staff between units and temporary hires) guided by a patient classification system may appear an efficient approach to meeting variable demand for care in hospitals.
Objectives: We modelled the cost-effectiveness of different approaches to planning baseline numbers of nurses to roster on general medical/surgical units while using flexible staff to respond to fluctuating demand.
Design and Setting: We developed an agent-based simulation model, where units move between being understaffed, adequately staffed or overstaffed as staff supply and demand, measured by the Safer Nursing Care Tool, varies. Staffing shortfalls are addressed firstly by floating staff from overstaffed units, secondly by hiring temporary staff. We compared a standard staffing plan (baseline rosters set to match average demand) with a resilient plan set to match higher demand, and a flexible plan, set at a lower level. We varied assumptions about temporary staff availability. We estimated the effect of unresolved low staffing on length of stay and death, calculating cost per life saved.
Results: Staffing plans with higher baseline rosters led to higher costs but improved outcomes. Cost savings from low baseline staff largely arose because shifts were left understaffed. Cost effectiveness for higher baseline staff was improved with high temporary staff availability. With limited temporary staff available, the resilient staffing plan (higher baseline staff) cost GBP9,506 per life saved compared to the standard plan. The standard plan cost GBP13,967 per life saved compared to the flexible (low baseline) plan. With unlimited temporary staff, the resilient staffing plan cost GBP5,524 per life saved compared to the standard plan and the standard plan cost GBP946 per life saved compared with the flexible plan. Cost-effectiveness of higher baseline staffing was more favourable when negative effects of high temporary staffing were modelled.
Conclusion: Flexible staffing can be guided by shift-by-shift measurement of patient demand, but proper attention must be given to ensure that the baseline number of staff rostered is sufficient. In the face of staff shortages, low baseline staff rosters with high use of flexible staff on hospital wards is not an efficient or effective use of nurses whereas high baseline rosters may be cost-effective. Flexible staffing plans that minimise the number of nurses routinely rostered are likely to harm patients because temporary staff may not be available at short notice.