Harry Johnson on the Phillips Curve

Abstract

It is noted that Harry G. Johnson was widely admired for his broad knowledge of economics, and particularly for the excellence and synthesizing quality of much of his writing. His discussions of the Phillips curve and related matters are considered. It is found that they are brief, inaccurate, and inconsistent. It is clear that, despite his reputation, they should not be treated as authoritative. It is further suggested that rather than supposing that Johnson’s knowledge and capabilities have been grossly exaggerated, it may be better to conclude that the Phillips curve was not nearly so important in the literature of the 1960s and 1970s as has been supposed.

What was the message of Friedman’s Presidential Address to the American Economic Association?

“…The precision with which the emergence of the story can be dated is one of the most striking facts about it and is confirmed by the findings of Forder (2015) to the effect that it appeared in textbooks more or less exactly in 1978. The general sense of the unimportance of the Phillips curve in the economics of the 1960s is reinforced with further evidence in Beggs (2015) and Forder (2017?). inflation or deflation of prices.…”

Did Irving Fisher Really Discover the Phillips Curve?

“…Contrary to Friedman’s claim, Phillips did not address inflation at all. As Forder (2017) states, “If Phillips had been principally interested in the relationship of inflation and unemployment, he would have estimated that relationship” (p. 506n6).…”