Has There Been a Transgender Tipping Point? Gender Identification Differences in U.S. Cohorts Born Between 1935 and 2001

Abstract

Using a probability-based sample from 39 U.S. states from a general health survey, I evaluate popular claims of a “transgender tipping point” by estimating probabilities of identifying as transgender and gender nonconforming among cohorts of respondents born between 1935 and 2001. Respondents born after 1984 are significantly more likely to identify as transgender or gender nonconforming than respondents in earlier cohorts. However, cohort changes in identification as transgender and gender nonconforming vary along lines of sex assigned at birth, race/ethnicity, and college attendance. Within different cohorts, these factors have different associations with higher or lower odds of identifying as transgender or gender nonconforming, sometimes contrasting with popular narratives and media representation patterns. Analyzed in context, these findings provide empirical evidence that several distinct population-level biographical availability patterns, including convergences, reversals, and persistence of demographic associations, have shaped the prevalence and composition of U.S. transgender and gender nonconforming populations over time.