Hate at first sight? Dynamic aspects of the electoral impact of migration: the case of Ukip

Abstract

, "Workshop on Recent Developments on Migration Issues" (BETA, Luxembourg), and to the INEQ Research Group meeting. We are grateful to all the participants for their useful hints. We thank the editor Klaus F. Zimmermann and two anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions that led to a considerable improvement of the paper. A slightly different version of this work circulated under the title "Hate at first sight? Dynamic aspects of the electoral impact of migration: The case of UK and Brexit" as a SPRU Working Paper. The usual disclaimer applies.

An exploratory study of populism: the municipality-level predictors of electoral outcomes in Italy

“…Lega in particular has focused on the negative consequences of immigration. In concordance, many results in the economic literature find that an increase in the number of immigrants causes an increase in votes for far-right parties in most European countries (Dustman et al, 2018, Halla et al, 2017, Levi et al, 2020, and this holds for Italy too (Barone et al, 2016, Caselli et al, 2019. However, the literature that specifically focus on populism provides mixed results on this, suggesting that migration may be part of a populist narrative more than a determinant of votes at local level (Colantone and Stanig, 2018a).…”

Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities

“…Interestingly, he also finds that a brief exposure to a large number of refugees passing through the municipalities actually increased FPÖ's vote share. Similarly, Levi et al (2020), considering the dynamics of migration and the voting for Britain's far-right UKIP, show that immigrants increase far-right support only in the short-run, while in the long-run, it is the opposite.…”

“…My analysis contributes to the growing economics literature on the effects of immigration on voting for the far-right and other anti-immigrant parties in Europe (described in more detail in Section 2). 5 Most studies find a positive effect (Halla et al 2017;Barone et al 2016;Becker and Fetzer 2016;Edo et al 2019;Gerdes and Wadensjö 2008;Harmon 2018;Mendez and Cutillas 2014;Otto and Steinhardt 2014;Brunner and Kuhn 2018), while the negative relationship has only been documented in Steinmayr (2018), and to some extent also in Dustmann et al (2019) and Levi et al (2020).…”

The Immigration Puzzle in Italy: A Survey of Evidence and Facts

“…For an extensive description of the Italian Dispersal Policy and the potential effect of refugees on voting behaviors seeCampo et al (2020).8 Results are available upon request.9 For a similar conclusion on the case of UK seeLevi et al (2020).…”