2024
DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12425
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Have Autocrats Governed for the Long Term?

Emanuele Millemaci,
Fabio Monteforte,
Jonathan R. W. Temple

Abstract: The short answer is: probably not. We infer the priorities of national governments from observed outcomes, constructing a statistical proxy for long‐term benevolence. Using data between 1960 and 2019 for more than 100 countries, we show that, on average, democracies score more highly on our measure. We then investigate whether variation in long‐term benevolence can explain the ‘autocratic gamble’—the well‐known tendency for growth rates to vary more widely across autocracies than across democracies. We show th… Show more

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