Have Changes in Policing Reduced Violent Crime? An Assessment of the Evidence

Eck, John E.; Maguire, Edward R.

doi:10.1017/cbo9780511616167.008

Cited by 197 publications

(204 citation statements)

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“…Barbarino and Mastrobuoni (2014), Buonanno and Raphael (2013), Levitt (1996Levitt ( , 2004 and Owens (2009) claim that incapacitation measures effectively reduce crime, but Eck and Maguire (2006) and Beattie and Mole (2007) suggest that increases in police forces and incarceration rates in the United States and in Canada did not lead to expected outcomes.…”

Section: Theoretical Background Deterrence Information and The Dropmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in São Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach

Freire

2022

Lat. American Res. Rev.

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Although Brazil remains severely affected by civil violence, the state of São Paulo has made significant inroads into fighting criminality. In the last decade, São Paulo has witnessed a 70 percent decline in homicide rates, a result that policy-makers attribute to a series of crimereducing measures implemented by the state government. While recent academic studies seem to confirm this downward trend, no estimation of the total impact of state policies on homicide rates currently exists. The present article fills this gap by employing the synthetic control method to compare these measures against an artificial São Paulo. The results indicate a large drop in homicide rates in actual São Paulo when contrasted with the synthetic counterfactual, with about 20,000 lives saved during the period. The theoretical usefulness of the synthetic control method for public policy analysis, the role of the Primeiro Comando da Capital as a moderating variable, and the practical implications of the security measures taken by the São Paulo State government are also discussed.Apesar de o Brasil permanecer gravemente afetado pela violência civil, o estado de São Paulo tem realizado progressos significativos no combate ao crime. Na última década, São Paulo testemunhou uma queda de 70% em suas taxas de homicídio, um resultado que formuladores de políticas públicas atribuem a uma série de medidas de redução de criminalidade adotadas pelo governo estadual. Embora estudos acadêmicos recentes pareçam confirmar esta tendência de baixa, ainda não há estimativas do impacto total das políticas estatais sobre a taxa de homicídios. O presente artigo visa preencher tal lacuna ao empregar o método de controle sintético para comparar tais medidas contra um São Paulo artificial. Os resultados indicam uma grande queda nas taxas de homicídio quando contrastadas com o contrafactual sintético, com cerca de 20,000 vidas salvas durante o período. A utilidade teórica do controle sintético para a análise de políticas públicas, o papel do Primeiro Comando da Capital como variável moderadora, e as implicações práticas das medidas de segurança adotadas pelo governo do estado de São Paulo também são discutidas.

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Section: Theoretical Background Deterrence Information and The Dropmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in São Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach

Freire

2022

Lat. American Res. Rev.

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“…Additionally, findings from the MacDonald study indicate that in addition to the effect of community policing on gun control and the decline in violent crime, proactive policing strategies related to arrest have also had positive effects on violent crime measures and were found to be related to reduction in violent crime over time. However, from another perspective, Eck and Maguire (2000) review of the existing studies on the role of the police in controlling violent crime reveals that forty-nine percent of these studies found no effect to exist at all, and only twenty percent found that more police resulted in less violent crime.…”

Section: Kirsten (2008) Study Focus On the Contributions Of Non-govermentioning

confidence: 99%

Gun Violence in United States of America Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses

Karimu¹

2015

Journal of Challenges

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“…As discussed earlier, a number of alternative explanations can be used to explain a drop in crime. As example, the recent book,"The Crime Drop in America" (Blumstein and Wallman, 2000) compiles a variety of explanations for the reductions in crime in the U.S. For example, alternative explanations for drops in crime from this compilation include: changes in drug use patterns (Johnson, Golub and Dunlap, 2000), policing and community policing (Eck and Maguire, 2000), growth in prison expansion (Spelman, 2000), reductions in use of handguns (Blumstein and Wallman, 2000), expanding economy (Grogger, 2000) and changing demographics (Fox, 2000). Obtaining monthly time series data on these alternative explanations is difficult.…”

Section: Changes In Criminal Justice System Of Virginiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

2003

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The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using univariate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variable.Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a multivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation. Intervention time series analysis of crime rates:the impact of sentence reforms in Virginia AbstractThe Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using univariate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variable.Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a multivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation.

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Have Changes in Policing Reduced Violent Crime? An Assessment of the Evidence

Cited by 197 publications

References 0 publications

Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in São Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach

Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in São Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach

Gun Violence in United States of America Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses

Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

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