Have we put an end to social promotion? Changes in school progress among children aged 6 to 17 from 1972 to 2005

Abstract

We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background across age and time from 1972 to 2005. While the effects of socioeconomic background variables on progress through school have become increasingly powerful as children grow older that typical pattern has been attenuated across the past three decades by a steady secular decline in the influence of those variables across all ages. A great deal of concern has been expressed about rising levels of economic and social inequality in the United States since the middle 1970s, and about the potential intergenerational effects of such inequality. However, there has been an opposite trend in the effects of social origins on being BMG. A trend is not a law, and there is reason to be concerned about the recent deceleration of the secular decline in effects of social background on being BMG.

Patterns and Trends in Grade Retention Rates in the United States, 1995–2010

“…Several scholars have used proxies for retention based on the distribution of students’ grades of enrollment conditional on their ages (e.g., Bianchi, 1984; Frederick & Hauser, 2008; Hauser et al, 2007; Hauser, Pager, & Simmons, 2004; Heubert & Hauser, 1999). These proxies begin by observing whether students are enrolled in a grade below that which is modal for their age.…”

“…Our method was first introduced by Hauser, Frederick, and Andrew (2007); see also Frederick & Hauser (2008). We offer a number of technical improvements, provide estimates for a more recent and wider range of years, and validate the resulting measure against administrative record data.…”

“…In this paper, we describe an improved method of measuring individual students' retention in grade at different points in the educational career and across cohorts of students using readily available national data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Our method was first introduced by Hauser, Frederick, and Andrew (2007; see also Frederick & Hauser, 2008). We offer a number of technical improvements, provide estimates for a more recent and wider range of years, and validate the resulting measure against administrative record data.…”

First- Through Eighth-Grade Retention Rates for All 50 States

“…Because of these limitations of NCES and CPS data, many scholars use proxies for retention based on the distribution of students’ ages within grades (e.g., Bianchi, 1984; Frederick & Hauser, 2008; Hauser, Frederick, & Andrew, 2007; Hauser, Pager, & Simmons, 2004; Heubert & Hauser, 1999). These proxies define students as “delayed” if they are enrolled below the modal grade for their age.…”

Low Birth Weight, Preschool Education, and School Remediation

“…In 2007, information from parent surveys suggested that 9.8 % of children in kindergarten through eighth grade had been retained (U.S. Department of Education, 2009) Hauser, Pager & Simmons (2004) examined grade retention data from other national sources and concluded that at least 15% of students aged 15-17 had been retained Hauser, Frederick & Andrews (2007) and Frederick and Hauser (2008) report increasing rates of grade retention over time. Although retention may add one year to children’s schooling, its largest cost may arise from the relationship between grade retention and later school dropout (Walberg, Reynolds, & Wang, 2004).…”