Hazard assessment of oil spills along the main shipping lane in the Red Sea

Mittal, H. V. R.; Langodan, Sabique; Zhan, Peng; Li, Shihan; Knio, Omar M.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-96572-5

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…For each release scenario, 5,000 oil particles were released from the release point, where the Lagrangian and oil models advected and simulated weathering under metocean conditions. The performance and accuracy of MOHID for oil spill modeling have already been demonstrated in many previous studies and ocean basins [e.g., (Li, 2017) and (Mittal et al, 2021)].…”

Section: Oil Spill Modelmentioning

confidence: 76%

Variance-based sensitivity analysis of oil spill predictions in the Red Sea region

et al. 2023

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To support accidental spill rapid response efforts, oil spill simulations may generally need to account for uncertainties concerning the nature and properties of the spill, which compound those inherent in model parameterizations. A full detailed account of these sources of uncertainty would however require prohibitive resources needed to sample a large dimensional space. In this work, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the possibility of restricting a priori the set of uncertain parameters, at least in the context of realistic simulations of oil spills in the Red Sea region spanning a two-week period following the oil release. The evolution of the spill is described using the simulation capabilities of Modelo Hidrodinâmico, driven by high-resolution metocean fields of the Red Sea (RS) was adopted to simulate accidental oil spills in the RS. Eight spill scenarios are considered in the analysis, which are carefully selected to account for the diversity of metocean conditions in the region. Polynomial chaos expansions are employed to propagate parametric uncertainties and efficiently estimate variance-based sensitivities. Attention is focused on integral quantities characterizing the transport, deformation, evaporation and dispersion of the spill. The analysis indicates that variability in these quantities may be suitably captured by restricting the set of uncertain inputs parameters, namely the wind coefficient, interfacial tension, API gravity, and viscosity. Thus, forecast variability and confidence intervals may be reasonably estimated in the corresponding four-dimensional input space.

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Section: Oil Spill Modelmentioning

confidence: 76%

Variance-based sensitivity analysis of oil spill predictions in the Red Sea region

et al. 2023

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“…The maximum (1.9 m/yr) surface net water flux is during winter (i.e., December), while the minimum (<+1 m/yr) surface net water flux is during late spring and early summer (i.e., May and June) (Figure 7b). The surface net water flux peaks observed in winter are due to southeastern (SE) winds associated with the Indian Ocean's northeastern (NE) monsoon winds, which blow up with speeds of 10 m/s approaching and frequently exceeding 15 m/s over the whole length of the Red Sea [23,24]. The highest surface net water flux (+2.1 m/yr) was detected during 2020, while the lowest value (+1.3 m/yr) was observed during 1985 (see Figure 8).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, the reversal of the monsoons in the SRS modifies the exchange between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden flow through the Strait of Bab Al-Mandab [5,22]. During the summer, from April to October, a northwest (NW) wind blows along the entire length of the sea, with speeds of 10 m/s approaching and frequently exceeding 15 m/s [23,24]. During the winter, the same northerly wind dominates over the northern part of the basin, while southeastern (SE) winds associated with the Indian Ocean's northeastern (NE) monsoon prevail over the SRS.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the winter, the same northerly wind dominates over the northern part of the basin, while southeastern (SE) winds associated with the Indian Ocean's northeastern (NE) monsoon prevail over the SRS. The coexistence of northerly and southerly winds creates a convergence zone near the Red Sea's center, approximately at a latitude of 20 • N [24,25].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Variability of Heat and Water Fluxes in the Red Sea Using ERA5 Data (1981–2020)

Nagy

Mohamed

Ibrahim

2021

JMSE

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The study of heat and water fluxes is one of the most essential components for understanding the interactions and exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere. Heat transfer across the air–sea interface is an important process in ocean–atmosphere dynamics. In this study, a 40-year (1981–2020) high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) ERA-5 reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is used to estimate the variability and trends of heat and water flux components in the Red Sea. The results show that the surface net heat flux is negative (loss) in the Northern Red Sea (NRS) and positive (gain) in the Southern Red Sea (SRS). The highest seasonal surface net heat flux is observed in the spring and early summer, while the lowest is reported in the winter. A significant linear trend is found in the surface net heat flux over the NRS and SRS, with values of about −0.12 ± 0.052 (W/m2)/yr and +0.20 ± 0.021 (W/m2)/yr, respectively. The annual mean surface net water flux loss to the atmosphere over the entire Red Sea is +1.46 ± 0.23 m/yr. The seasonal surface net water flux peak occurs in winter as a result of the northeast monsoon wind, which increases evaporation rate over the whole length of the Red Sea. The highest surface net water flux (+2.1 m/yr) is detected during 2020, while the lowest value (+1.3 m/yr) is observed during 1985.

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“…There is a huge environmental pollution risk from spilled oil in coastal zones because of the various exploration, production, refining, and transportation activities that are taking place all over the world (Bhardwaj and Bhaskarwar, 2018;. Although the amount of oil spilled is declining under the background of the increasing world oil trade volume in recent years (Chen et al, 2019), the risk posed by oil spills continuously persists (Mittal et al, 2021). Thus, the environmental, human health, and socioeconomic consequences caused by spills cannot be ignored, and efficient prevention and mitigation measures are greatly needed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability assessment of coastal tourist attractions to oil spill stress based on a pressure-state-response framework: A case study of the Bohai Sea, China

Wang

Liu

et al. 2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The protection of coastal tourist attractions under oil spill stress requires a more detailed vulnerability assessment approach. In this study, an assessment model for estimating the vulnerability of coastal tourist attractions to oil spills along the Bohai Sea’s coastlines was developed, natural environmental and socioeconomic data were collected, and a geographic information system (GIS) was used. As many as 26 factors were selected for the vulnerability analysis of typical tourist destinations in the littoral area. All of the factors were grouped into different categories according to a pressure-state-response (PSR) framework (pressure parameters, state parameters, and response parameters), and a different rank of importance was assigned to each factor via the analytical hierarchy process. The comprehensive analysis results were calculated and visualized using GIS. The results show that the state and response together strongly affected the vulnerability of the various coastal tourist attractions, while the pressure had less effect on the vulnerability. There were obvious spatial variations among the different coastal tourist destinations. Overall, the coastal tourist attractions surrounding the Bohai Sea were characterized by a high oil spill pressure, high sensitivity, low emergency response capabilities, and high vulnerability. This study provides a reference for vulnerability assessment of tourist destinations under oil spill stress, provides a scientific decision-making basis for the protection of coastal tourist destinations, and is conducive to promoting the healthy development of the coastal tourism industry.

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Hazard assessment of oil spills along the main shipping lane in the Red Sea

Cited by 18 publications

References 53 publications

Variance-based sensitivity analysis of oil spill predictions in the Red Sea region

Variance-based sensitivity analysis of oil spill predictions in the Red Sea region

Variability of Heat and Water Fluxes in the Red Sea Using ERA5 Data (1981–2020)

Vulnerability assessment of coastal tourist attractions to oil spill stress based on a pressure-state-response framework: A case study of the Bohai Sea, China

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