Hazard assessment of potential periglacial debris flows based on GIS‐based spatial modelling and geophysical field surveys: a case study in the Swiss Alps

Kneisel, Christof; Rothenbühler, C.; Keller, Felix; Haeberli, Wilfried

doi:10.1002/ppp.593

Cited by 24 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Climate warming in the region should therefore elicit significant change in geomorphic, hydrologic and ecosystem functioning above and below treeline due to permafrost loss (Kneisel et al, 2007;Kääb, 2008). Additional impacts may relate to vegetation change (Jorgensson et al, 2001), alterations to carbon cycling and the emission of greenhouse gases as frozen organic material thaws (Tarnocai et al, 2009;Hugelius et al, 2010;O'donnell et al, 2011).…”

Section: Loss Morphology Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

Bonnaventure

Lewkowicz

2013

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. Air temperature changes were applied to a regional model of permafrost probability under equilibrium conditions for an area of nearly 0.5 × 10 6 km 2 in the southern Yukon and northwestern British Columbia, Canada. Associated environmental changes, including snow cover and vegetation, were not considered in the modelling. Permafrost extent increases from 58 % of the area (present day: 1971-2000) to 76 % under a −1 K cooling scenario, whereas warming scenarios decrease the percentage of permafrost area exponentially to 38 % (+ 1 K), 24 % (+ 2 K), 17% (+ 3 K), 12 % (+ 4 K) and 9 % (+ 5 K) of the area. The morphology of permafrost gain/loss under these scenarios is controlled by the surface lapse rate (SLR, i.e. air temperature elevation gradient), which varies across the region below treeline. Areas that are maritime exhibit SLRs characteristically similar above and below treeline resulting in low probabilities of permafrost in valley bottoms. When warming scenarios are applied, a loss front moves to upper elevations (simple unidirectional spatial loss). Areas where SLRs are gently negative below treeline and normal above treeline exhibit a loss front moving up-mountain at different rates according to two separate SLRs (complex unidirectional spatial loss). Areas that display high continentally exhibit bidirectional spatial loss in which the loss front moves up-mountain above treeline and down-mountain below treeline. The parts of the region most affected by changes in MAAT (mean annual air temperature) have SLRs close to 0 K km −1 and extensive discontinuous permafrost, whereas the least sensitive in terms of areal loss are sites above the treeline where permafrost presence is strongly elevation dependent.

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Section: Loss Morphology Typesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

Bonnaventure

Lewkowicz

2013

The Cryosphere

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“…Glacier lake outburst floods, ice avalanches or debris flows can be modelled with a GIS (e.g. Huggel et al, 2003, Kneisel et al, 2007Salzmann et al, 2004). Also, permafrost distribution, approximate ground-, firn-and ice-temperatures, or various other terrain parameters that have an impact on natural hazards can be computed.…”

Section: Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Permafrost and climate in Europe: Monitoring and modelling thermal, geomorphological and geotechnical responses

Harris

Arenson

Christiansen³

et al. 2009

Earth-Science Reviews

574

361

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We present a review of the changing state of European permafrost within a spatial zone that includes the continuous high latitude arctic permafrost of Svalbard and the discontinuous high altitude mountain permafrost of Iceland, Fennoscandia and the Alps. The paper focuses on methodological developments and data collection over the last decade or so, including research associated with the continent-scale network of instrumented permafrost boreholes established between 1998 and 2001 under the European Union PACE project. Data indicate recent warming trends, with greatest warming at higher latitudes. Equally important are the impacts of shorter-term extreme climatic events, most immediately reflected in changes in active layer thickness. A large number of complex variables, including altitude, topography, insolation and snow distribution, determine permafrost temperatures. The development of regionally calibrated empiricalstatistical models, and physically based process-oriented models, is described, and it is shown that, though more complex and data dependent, process-oriented approaches are better suited to estimating transient effects of climate change in complex mountain topography. Mapping and characterisation of permafrost depth and distribution requires integrated multiple geophysical approaches and recent advances are discussed. We report on recent research into ground ice formation, including ice segregation within bedrock and vein ice formation within ice wedge systems. The potential impacts of climate change on rock weathering, permafrost creep, landslides, rock falls, debris flows and slow mass movements are also discussed. Recent engineering responses to the potentially damaging effects of climate warming are outlined, and risk assessment strategies to minimise geological hazards are described. We conclude that forecasting changes in hazard occurrence, magnitude and frequency is likely to depend on process-based modelling, demanding improved understanding of geomorphological process-response systems and their impacts on human activity. We present a review of the changing state of European permafrost within a spatial zone that includes the continuous high latitude arctic permafrost of Svalbard and the discontinuous high altitude mountain permafrost of Iceland, Fennoscandia and the Alps. The paper focuses on methodological developments and data collection over the last decade or so, including research associated with the continent-scale network of instrumented permafrost boreholes established between 1998 and 2001 under the European Union PACE project. Data indicate recent warming trends, with greatest warming at higher latitudes. Equally important are the impacts of shorter-term extreme climatic events, most immediately reflected in changes in active layer thickness. A large number of complex variables, including altitude, topography, insolation and snow distribution, determine permafrost temperatures. The development of regionally calibrated empiricalstatistical models, and physically based ...

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“…Most of the research on susceptibility mapping of debris flows has been developed at a small scale (e.g. Latulippe and Peiry, 1996;BonnetStaub, 2001;Kneisel et al 2007;Carrara et al, 2008) and have provided good results for identifying triggering sources of debris flows.…”

Section: Scientific Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of geomorphological mapping to sediment transfer evaluation in small alpine catchments

et al. 2010

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The assessment of sediment transfer processes is necessary to understand the hydro-geomorphological functioning of small alpine watersheds prone to channelised debris flows because their occurrence often depends on the amount of debris available in the gully systems. Therefore, sediment budgets should be studied through the identification of erosion, transport and deposition processes. Sediment transfer processes were investigated in a small catchment by field measurements and, more specifically, through the application of a process-based geomorphological mapping method. The proposed methodology is based on data directly derived from GIS analysis using high-resolution DEM, field measurements and aerial photograph interpretations. It has been conceived to estimate sediment transfer dynamics, taking into account the role of different sediment stores in the torrential system. The proposed geomorphological mapping methodology is quite innovative in comparison with most legend systems that are not adequate for mapping comprehensively active and complex geomorphological systems such as debris-flow catchments. Maps representing the various sediment storages and their relationships can be used for hydro-geomorphological hazard mitigation.

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Hazard assessment of potential periglacial debris flows based on GIS‐based spatial modelling and geophysical field surveys: a case study in the Swiss Alps

Cited by 24 publications

References 11 publications

Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

Impacts of mean annual air temperature change on a regional permafrost probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada

Permafrost and climate in Europe: Monitoring and modelling thermal, geomorphological and geotechnical responses

The contribution of geomorphological mapping to sediment transfer evaluation in small alpine catchments

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