Hazard Characterization of the Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation in the Southwestern Iberian Peninsula (1851–2021)

Abstract

High-intensity rainfall can raise fluvial channel levels, increasing the risk of flooding. Maximum precipitation depths are used to estimate return periods and, thus, calculate the risk of this type of event. To improve these estimates in Southwest Europe, we studied the behavior of extreme rainfall using the historical records of San Fernando (Cádiz, southwest Spain), obtaining the maximum daily annual rainfall (period 1851–2021). Local risk levels for intense precipitation were established based on the mean values and standard deviation of daily precipitation. In this series, 38% of the years had some type of risk (>53.7 mm), of which 13% of these years had high risk (>73.2 mm) or disaster risk (>92.7 mm). In these risk thresholds, the maximum daily precipitation is mostly concentrated in the autumn months. The SQRT-ETMax model used fits well with the instrumental historical records for return periods of up to 25 years, although it may present appreciable deviations for longer return periods. Using a 170-year secular series, a more precise understanding of extreme periods and precipitation variability was obtained.

The Variability of Maximum Daily Precipitation and the Underlying Circulation Conditions in Kraków, Southern Poland

“…An analysis of the synoptic situations behind two extremely catastrophic rainfall events and their environmental effects is presented. The use of such a uniquely long series of precipitation maxima in an urban area has the potential to provide a better insight into their variability, which can be utilised in forecasting them [6,12]. Precipitation, unlike air temperature, does not show statistically significant long-term changes, but instead demonstrates short-term fluctuations, including periodic ones [7,8,13].…”

“…For Europe, such an analysis was carried out by Madsen et al [22], who found a general increase in the volume of extreme precipitation, though without any marked tendencies in the increase in maximum flows. However, few of these studies are based on secular, series of measurements of over 100 years [12].…”

Сравнение Способов Определения Слоя Суточных Осадков Для Расчета Максимальных Расходов Дождевых Паводков (На Примере Калининградской Области)

“…Проблеме подбора закона распределения, адекватно описывающего статистику МССО, посвящено большое количество исследований [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. Применение классических методов моделирования ММСО, использующих асимптотическое распределение экстремальных значений, подробно проанализировано в обзоре [11].…”