Hazard estimation of the possible pyroclastic flow disasters using numerical simulation related to the 1994 activity at Merapi Volcano

Itoh, Hideyuki; Takahama, J; Takahashi, Mitsue; Miyamoto, Kuniaki

doi:10.1016/s0377-0273(00)00153-0

Cited by 39 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…prise and disbelief (Siswowidjoyo et al, 1997;Itoh et al, 2000;Andreastuti, 2000;van Rotterdam-Los et al, 2008;De Bélizal et al, 2012;Mei et al, 2013). Two aspects of the conventional approach have to be highlighted here: (i) from a theoretical point of view, volcano and human society are conventionally understood as two dichotomous systems, in a relationship in which the volcano and its activities determine societal behaviour distinctly; (ii) the focus lies on investigating the negative, threatening impacts of a volcano on society and how people live and cope with this situation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The calamity of eruptions, or an eruption of benefits? Mt. Bromo human–volcano system a case study of an open-risk perception

Bachri

Stötter

Monreal

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In this paper we investigate the question not of how, but why people actively choose to live with continued exposure to considerable hazard. A field survey of the human-volcano interaction at Bromo Volcano was based on semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. The recorded interviews were transcribed and analysed according to recurrent themes in the answers. Findings from field investigation were then confronted with previous existing concepts of human exposure to natural hazards. The result shows that the interaction between humans and the volcanic environment at Bromo volcano is multifaceted and complex. The Tengger people choose -rather than being forced -to live with volcanic hazards. They are not only exposed to its negative consequence, but also enjoy benefits and opportunities of physical, spiritual and socio-cultural nature that arise within the human-volcanic system. Following this perspective, the concept of risk itself must be revisited and expanded from a one-sided focus on hazardous processes to a more holistic view of risk that includes the various positive aspects that pertain to the entire system. The development of a generic human-volcanic system model could provide the basis for the development of an open-risk concept.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The calamity of eruptions, or an eruption of benefits? Mt. Bromo human–volcano system a case study of an open-risk perception

Bachri

Stötter

Monreal

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Sheridan et al (2000) and Toyos et al (2007) continued to apply computer models to identify hazard zones based on the run out and velocity of small-volume pyroclastic flows, yet these zones usually encompassed the entire cone and ignored confining topography. Similar BAF modelling was undertaken by Saucedo et al (2004) and Itoh et al (2000) on Colima and Merapi volcanoes, respectively, with the outputs from individual scenarios being the basis for hazard assessment. Related work in lahar hazards analysis (Canuti et al 2002;Schilling 1998;Stevens et al 2003) compared the effectiveness of the computer simulations between FLO-2D and LAHARZ.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki, NZ

et al. 2009

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Numerical models for simulation of mass flows are typically focussed upon accurately predicting the paths, travel times and inundation from a single flow or collapse event. When considering catchment-based hazards from a volcano, this is complicated by often being faced with several possible scenarios. Over the last 800 years at Mt. Taranaki/ Egmont, a number of dome growth and collapse events have resulted in the genesis and emplacement of block-and-ash flows (BAFs). Each BAF was directed northwestward by a breach in the crater rim. The latest dome collapse events in the AD 1880s and AD 1755 inundated the northwestern flank and had run-out lengths 10 km from source. Future activity of this type could have a devastating effect on the Taranaki region's communities, infrastructure and economy. Hazard planning has involved constructing volcanic hazard maps based upon the areas inundated by past volcanic flows, with little consideration of present-day topography. Here, a numerical geophysical mass flow modelling approach is used to forecast the hazards of future comparable BAF events on NW Mt. Taranaki. The Titan2D programme encompasses a ''shallow water'', continuum solution-based, granular flow model. Flow mechanical properties needed for this approach include estimates of internal and basal friction as well as the physical dimensions of the initial collapse. Before this model can be applied to Taranaki BAFs, the input parameters must be calibrated by simulating a range of past collapse events. By using AD 1860 and AD 1755 scenarios, initial collapse volumes can be well constrained and internal and basal friction angles can be evaluated through an iterative approach from previous run-out lengths. A range of possible input parameters was, therefore, determined to produce a suite of potentially inundated areas under present-day terrain. A suite of 10 forecasts from a uniformly distributed range were combined to create a map of relative probabilities of inundation by future BAF events. These results were combined in a GIS package to produce hazard zones

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“…Itoh et al [11] adopt physical and empirical assumptions, that define differential equations, solved with finite differences method (similar to a CA approach). Interesting results were obtained for the Merapi volcano pyroclastic flows.…”

Section: Comment and Conclusionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Cellular Automata Model for Simulating Pyroclastic Flows and First Application to 1991 Pinatubo Eruption

Crisci

Gregorio

Rongo

et al. 2003

Lecture Notes in Computer Science

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Abstract. PYR, a first Cellular Automata model for pyroclastic flows, generated by collapsing volcanic columns, is reported in this paper. It was applied to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption (Philippines islands). The model is very simple, but it is able to capture the three-dimensional evolution of the phenomenon in so far as it spreads. Results of the simulations are enough satisfying, if the comparison between real and simulated event is performed, considering the area involved by the event and the thickness of the deposit.

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Hazard estimation of the possible pyroclastic flow disasters using numerical simulation related to the 1994 activity at Merapi Volcano

Cited by 39 publications

References 6 publications

The calamity of eruptions, or an eruption of benefits? Mt. Bromo human–volcano system a case study of an open-risk perception

The calamity of eruptions, or an eruption of benefits? Mt. Bromo human–volcano system a case study of an open-risk perception

Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki, NZ

A Cellular Automata Model for Simulating Pyroclastic Flows and First Application to 1991 Pinatubo Eruption

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