Hazards of a flooding event in the city of Gdansk and possible forms of preventing the phenomenon – case study

Cieśliński, Roman; Szydłowski, Michał; Chlost, Izabela; Mikos-Studnicka, Patrycja

doi:10.1080/1573062x.2023.2254745

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 62 publications

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“…Following the 2001 flood, Gdańsk underwent significant modifications in its approach to protect the municipal infrastructure and residents (Majewski, 2016;Cieśliński et al, 2023). The city built open retention reservoirs, which mitigated floods along natural watercourses stretching from the Kashubian Lake District plateau to the Gulf of Gdańsk.…”

Section: Role Of Local Authorities In Shaping Rainwater Management In...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Hydrological Research, Municipal Authorities, and Residents on Rainwater Management in Gdańsk (Poland) in the Process of Adapting the City to Climate Change

Szydłowski,

Gulshad,

Mustafa

et al. 2023

ASP.FC

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Aim of the study: The city of Gdańsk faces changing climatic conditions that result in a higher frequency of extreme weather events. In response to the increasingly frequent appearance of flash floods, scientific research was carried out on changes in the probability of the occurrence of maximum daily precipitation in Gdańsk. The purpose of this paper is to show the role of hydrological research (science), decisions of local authorities and the engagement of residents in the process of adapting Gdańsk to climate change. Material and methods: The hydrological analysis was carried out using rainfall observations from the Gdańsk Rębiechowo station (1974-2021). Log-normal distribution was used as a statistical model for the precipitation probability distribution. To show the role of the city authorities’ decisions, the methodology developed and used by Gdańsk Water company for rainwater management was presented. To emphasize the importance of city residents in climate adaptation process, the methods adopted by city authorities to involve citizens in the advisory process are discussed, namely Civic Panels and the Gdańsk Climate Change Forum. Results and conclusions: The probability distributions of maximum precipitation for different periods were developed, showing a substantial increase of precipitation with a probability of p=1%. Consequently, changes were introduced in the rainwater management practices by the company Gdańsk Water. Being aware of rising flood hazard, Gdańsk City Hall has embraced a plan for adapting the city to climatic changes by 2030. The local authorities decided to involve citizens in the decision-making process. To this end, discussion panels were organized, and the Gdańsk Climate Change Forum was initiated.

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Section: Role Of Local Authorities In Shaping Rainwater Management In...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Hydrological Research, Municipal Authorities, and Residents on Rainwater Management in Gdańsk (Poland) in the Process of Adapting the City to Climate Change

Szydłowski,

Gulshad,

Mustafa

et al. 2023

ASP.FC

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Assessing climate change threats and urbanization impacts on surface runoff in Gdańsk (Poland): insights from remote sensing, machine learning and hydrological modeling

Gulshad,

Szydłowski,

Mustafa

2024

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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This study investigates the impacts of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes and climate change on surface runoff in Gdańsk, Poland, which is crucial for local LULC planning and urban flood risk management. The analysis employs two primary methodologies: remote sensing and hydrological modeling. Remote sensing was conducted using Google Earth Engine and Land Change Modeler in IDRISI Terrset software to analyze historical (1985–2022) and future (2050–2100) LULC. Hydrological modeling was performed using the Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number method to assess the overall impact of LULC changes on Gdańsk’s hydrology at the local scale. The Orunia basin, a critical area due to intensive LULC development, was selected for detailed hydrological analysis using the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The analysis encompassed three scenarios: LULC changes, climate change, and combined LULC and climate change effects. The LULC analysis revealed a marked increase in urban area, a shift in forest and vegetation cover, and a reduction in agricultural land. HEC-HMS simulations showed an increase in the runoff coefficient across selected decades, which was attributed to the combined effect of LULC and climate change. The projected increases under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2100 are projected to surpass those observed during the baseline period. The findings highlight that the synergistic effects of LULC and climate change have a more significant impact on Gdańsk’s hydrology at both local and basin scales than their separate effects. These insights into LULC shifts and urban hydrological responses hold implications for sustainable urban planning and effective flood risk management in Gdańsk and similar urban settings.

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From Data to Decision: Interpretable Machine Learning for Predicting Flood Susceptibility in Gdańsk, Poland

Gulshad,

Yaseen,

Szydłowski

2024

Remote Sensing

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Flood susceptibility prediction is complex due to the multifaceted interactions among hydrological, meteorological, and urbanisation factors, further exacerbated by climate change. This study addresses these complexities by investigating flood susceptibility in rapidly urbanising regions prone to extreme weather events, focusing on Gdańsk, Poland. Three popular ML techniques, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), were evaluated for handling complex, nonlinear data using a dataset of 265 urban flood episodes. An ensemble filter feature selection (EFFS) approach was introduced to overcome the single-method feature selection limitations, optimising the selection of factors contributing to flood susceptibility. Additionally, the study incorporates explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), namely, the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model, to enhance the transparency and interpretability of the modelling results. The models’ performance was evaluated using various statistical measures on a testing dataset. The ANN model demonstrated a superior performance, outperforming the RF and the SVM. SHAP analysis identified rainwater collectors, land surface temperature (LST), digital elevation model (DEM), soil, river buffers, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as contributors to flood susceptibility, making them more understandable and actionable for stakeholders. The findings highlight the need for tailored flood management strategies, offering a novel approach to urban flood forecasting that emphasises predictive power and model explainability.

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Hazards of a flooding event in the city of Gdansk and possible forms of preventing the phenomenon – case study

Cited by 3 publications

References 62 publications

The Impact of Hydrological Research, Municipal Authorities, and Residents on Rainwater Management in Gdańsk (Poland) in the Process of Adapting the City to Climate Change

The Impact of Hydrological Research, Municipal Authorities, and Residents on Rainwater Management in Gdańsk (Poland) in the Process of Adapting the City to Climate Change

Assessing climate change threats and urbanization impacts on surface runoff in Gdańsk (Poland): insights from remote sensing, machine learning and hydrological modeling

From Data to Decision: Interpretable Machine Learning for Predicting Flood Susceptibility in Gdańsk, Poland

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