HE4-based nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: construction and validation

Abstract

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a life-threatening interstitial lung disease. Identifying biomarkers for early diagnosis is of great clinical importance. The epididymis protein 4 (HE4) is important in the process of inflammation and fibrosis in the epididymis. Its prognostic value in IPF, however, has not been studied. The mRNA and protein levels of HE4 were used to determine the prognostic value in different patient cohorts. In this study, prognostic nomograms were generated based on the results of the cox regression analysis. We identified the HE4 protein level increased in IPF patients, but not the HE4 gene expression. The increased expression of HE4 correlated positively with a poor prognosis for patients with IPF. The HR and 95% CI were 2.62 (1.61–4.24) (p < 0.001) in the training set. We constructed a model based on the risk-score = 0.16222182 * HE4 + 0/0.37580659/1.05003609 (for GAP index 0–3/4–5/6–8) + (− 1.1183375). In both training and validation sets, high-risk patients had poor prognoses (HR: 3.49, 95%CI 2.10–5.80, p = 0.001) and higher likelihood of dying (HR: 6.00, 95%CI 2.04–17.67, p = 0.001). Analyses of calibration curves and decision curves suggest that the method is effective in predicting outcomes. Furthermore, a similar formulation was used in a protein-based model based on HE4 that also showed prognostic value when applied to IPF patients. Accordingly, HE4 is an independent poor prognosis factor, and it has the potential to predict IPF patient survival.