Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models

Abstract

Background New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. Methods We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings—South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam—to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered ‘very cost-effective’ if the $/DALY was less than the country’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia: $1425, India: $1489, Vietnam: $1407) and ‘cost-effective’ if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. Findings In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from $237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to $749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to $241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. Interpretation Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. Funding The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization

Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in Early Asymptomatic HIV Infection

“…The results support global goals set by the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS to expand the use of antiretroviral therapy to all HIV-positive patients in order to improve their health and as part of efforts to reduce the future spread of HIV. 22-24,47,48 …”

Effects of Response to 2014–2015 Ebola Outbreak on Deaths from Malaria, HIV/AIDS, and Tuberculosis, West Africa

“…We compared this estimate with a scenario of reduced access to health services from June 2014, when Ebola was reported in the major cities of the 3 countries, through March 2015, when the outbreak was tapering ( 1 , 25 ). In other settings, this modeling approach has been used to assess the burden of illness for malaria ( 18 ), TB ( 26 ), and HIV/AIDS ( 27 ). …”

Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence

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