Health care for people with dementia in 2030 – Results of a multidisciplinary scenario process

Vollmar, Horst Christian; Goluchowicz, Kerstin; Beckert, Bernd; Dönitz, Ewa; Bartholomeyczik, Sabine; Ostermann, Thomas; Boustani, Malaz; Buscher, Ines

doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2013.07.023

Cited by 10 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer) 15 10 reduced to 5 2012 Rhea & Bettles [ 77 ] Academy of Nutrition & Dietetics US Dietetics workforce supply and demand 10 4 2006 Rydström & Törnberg [ 58 ] Karolinska Institute Sweden External influences on cervical cancer incidence and mortality n.s. c 8 2011 Suk & Semenza [ 75 ] European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) Europe (Sweden) Future infectious disease threats to Europe 10 8 2014 Vollmar et al [ 21 ] German Center for Neuro-degenerative Diseases (DZNE) Germany Health care for people with dementia in Germany 20 5 2008 Wiek et al [ 66 ] Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) Switzerland Possible future developments of nanotechnology in Switzerland 10 5 a IAF Institute for Alternative Futures, b STG Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios, c n.s. not specified d “the outputs were limited to the best and worst case scenarios” [ 30 ] …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main topics of the scenario projects differed in many ways. Most of them addressed disease related issues ( n = 9), led by mental health and dementia ( n = 4) [ 13 , 21 , 29 , 69 , 70 ] and cancer ( n = 3) [ 58 , 64 , 74 ]. Only one scenario project each reported on cardio-vascular diseases [ 73 ] and infectious diseases [ 75 ].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We also included in our review manuscripts which were recommended by authors or experts in the field [ 16 , 29 ]. We also scanned articles suggested by the ´related citations in PubMed’ option for the three most recently published articles [ 16 , 21 , 30 ]. Our search was not restricted by date or language.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although less commonly used in the context of health and health care than either the Delphi technique or simulation modeling, the scenario method has also been used to support strategic decision-making in the field [ 13 , 15 – 17 , 21 – 25 ]. Unfortunately, information about the different scenario projects in the context of public health or health policy seems to be disparate and often not known to researchers in this field.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care – a scoping review

Vollmar

Ostermann

Redaélli

2015

BMC Med Res Methodol

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BackgroundThe scenario technique is a method for future research and for strategic planning. Today, it includes both qualitative and quantitative elements. The aims of this scoping review are to give an overview of the application of the scenario method in the fields of health care and to make suggestions for better reporting in future scenario projects.MethodsBetween January 2013 and October 2013 we conducted a systematic search in the databases Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Eric, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cinahl since inception for the term ‘scenario(s)’ in combination with other terms, e.g. method, model, and technique. Our search was not restricted by date or language. In addition, we screened the reference lists of the included articles.ResultsA total of 576 bibliographical records were screened. After removing duplicates and three rounds of screening, 41 articles covering 38 different scenario projects were included for the final analysis. Nine of the included articles addressed disease related issues, led by mental health and dementia (n = 4), and followed by cancer (n = 3). Five scenario projects focused on public health issues at an organizational level and five focused on the labor market for different health care professionals. In addition, four projects dealt with health care ‘in general’, four with the field of biotechnology and personalized medicine, and additional four with other technology developments. Some of the scenario projects suffered from poor reporting of methodological aspects.ConclusionsDespite its potential, use of the scenario method seems to be published rarely in comparison to other methods such as the Delphi-technique, at least in the field of health care. This might be due to the complexity of the methodological approach. Individual project methods and activities vary widely and are poorly reported. Improved criteria are required for reporting of scenario project methods. With improved standards and greater transparency, the scenario method will be a good tool for scientific health care planning and strategic decision-making in public health.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0083-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care – a scoping review

Vollmar

Ostermann

Redaélli

2015

BMC Med Res Methodol

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Sie erfordert sowohl vom Gesundheitssystem als auch von der Gesellschaft erhebliche Anstrengungen [24,25,29]. Die zeitgerechte Wahrnehmung der Bedarfe und Bedürfnisse der erkrankten Menschen, das Vorliegen einer Multimorbidität und die Versorgung der Betroffenen auch in ländlichen Regionen stellen besondere Herausforderungen dar [24,27].…”

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