Health Impact Economic Cost Due to Climate Change over Three European Cities

Abstract

Abstract-We have studied the cost of health impacts of two possible IPCC global climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) on mortality and morbidity related with changes in the temperature and air pollution concentrations for years 2011, 2030, 2050 and 2100. The health outcomes are based on dynamical downscaled information with very high spatial resolution 50 meters. Short term health impacts were assessed for ozone, particles, apparent temperature and heat waves. Future changes in these environmental exposure variables as simulated by the model system for future years and compared relative to conditions in the 2011. Concentration-response coefficients were taken from the recent environmental epidemiological literature. The morbidity and mortality costs arising from climate change are then evaluated for each health outcome separately by multiplication of the number of cases with the respective cost estimates. For the mortality we use the Value of a Statistical Life and for the morbidity the cost of illness. We present the most significate results for each city. We have results of cost attributed to the climate change every 50 meters grid cell. The larger increase of costs of mortality and morbidity was noted in the increasing scenario (RCP8.5) for year 2100, because RCP 8.5 is characterized by temperature increments. As summary, Madrid will be the city more affected by the climate change with a cost of the health of 5.35 K$/m2, the next is Milan 1.65 K$/m2 and finally London with 0.99K$/m2. But the results have shown how the costs could be very different from one street to other. Maps of the spatial distribution of the costs of the climate change have showed.