PurposeThe study investigates the effect of uncertainty on gender equality and examines the policies and institutional qualities that matter for mitigating the effect.Design/methodology/approachThe research employs a Generalized Method of Moment model and data from 45 developing countries covering the period between 2005 and 2021. The estimation covers a wide range of specifications.FindingsThe study finds that uncertainty undermines gender equality. However, economic management policies, public sector management and institutions and policies for social inclusion and equity directly promote gender equality, and indirectly moderate the effect of uncertainty on gender equality. The result also establishes the existence of a Gender Kuznets Hypothesis.Originality/valueThe study offers pioneering evidence on the nexus between uncertainty, gender equality, public policies and institutional qualities. It explores the direct and indirect relationship between these variables using 18 different measures. The study offers interesting insights and implications for the gender economics literature.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-11-2023-0892