In many heart diseases, exercise treadmill testing(ETT) has useful functional correlates and/or prognostic value. However, its predictive value in mitral regurgitation(MR) is undefined. To determine whether ETT descriptors predict death or indications for mitral valve surgery among patients with MR, we prospectively followed, for 7±3 endpoint-free years, a cohort of 38 patients with chronic severe nonischemic MR who underwent modified Bruce ETT; all lacked surgical indications at study entry. Their baseline exercise descriptors also were compared with those from 46 patients with severe MR who, at entry, already had reached surgical indications. Endpoints during follow-up among the cohort included sudden death(n=1), heart failure symptoms(n=2), atrial fibrillation(n=4), LVEF<60%(n=2), LV systolic dimensions(IDs)≥45 mm(n=12) and LVIDs>40mm(n=11), LVEF<60%+LVIDs 45 mm(n=3), and heart failure+LVIDs 45mm +LVEF<60%(n=1). In univariate analysis, exercise duration(p=.004), chronotropic response(p=. 007), percent predicted peak heart rate(p=.01) and heart rate recovery(p<.02) predicted events; in multivariate analysis, only exercise duration was predictive(p<.02). Average annual event risk was 5-fold lower(4.62%) with exercise duration≥15 minutes vs. <15 minutes(average annual risk=23.48%, p=.004). Relative risks among patients with and without exercise-inducible ST segment depression were comparable(≤1.3 [NS]) whether defined at entry and/or during follow-up. Exercise duration, but not prevalence of exercise-inducible ST segment depression, was lower(p<. 001) among patients with surgical indications at entry vs. initially endpoint-free patients. In conclusion, among asymptomatic patients with chronic severe nonischemic MR and no objective criteria for operation, progression to surgical indications generally is rapid. However, those with excellent exercise tolerance have a relatively benign course. Exercise-inducible ST segment depression has no prognostic value in this population.We followed, for 7±3 endpoint-free years, 38 patients with chronic severe nonischemic mitral regurgitation (MR) who underwent modified Bruce exercise treadmill testing (ETT) to determine whether ETT descriptors predict death or indications for mitral valve surgery. At study entry, all lacked surgical indications. Exercise duration independently predicted subsequent events; event risks among patients with and without exercise-inducible ST segment depression were comparable. We conclude that among asymptomatic patients with chronic severe nonischemic MR Address for Correspondence: Jeffrey S. Borer, M.D., New York-Presbyterian Hospital New York Weill Cornell Center, 525 East 68 th Street, New York, N.Y. 10021, 212-746-4646=phone, 212-746-8448=fax, canadaD45@aol.com=email Publisher's Disclaimer: This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulti...