Heat and cold waves in mainland Spain: Origins, characteristics, and trends

Serrano‐Notivoli, Roberto; Lemus-Cánovas, Marc; Barrao, Samuel; Sarricolea, Pablo; Meseguer-Ruiz, Óliver; Tejedor, Ernesto

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100471

Cited by 23 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…For CWs, we do not find statistically significant trends in any part of the region. The locations of presence / 310 absence of these significant trends are further evidenced using the robust linear model The significant increasing trend for HW that we find are consistent with literature that reported increasing HW trends in Europe over the last decades (Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis, 2020; Piticar et al, 2018;Serrano-Notivoli et al, 2022;Spinoni et al, 2015;320 Zhang et al, 2020). The lack of trend in CW is also in agreement with previous research that could not detect any trend in extreme cold spells (Jarzyna and Krzyżewska, 2021;Piticar et al, 2018).…”

Section: Results and Discussion 280supporting

confidence: 90%

Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino Alto-Adige region from 1980 to 2018

Morlot

Russo

Feyen

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Heat waves (HW) and cold waves (CW) can have considerable impact on people. Mapping risks of extreme temperature at local scale accounting for the interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability remains a challenging task. In this study, we quantify human risks from HW and CW at high resolution for theTrentino-Alto Adige region of Italy from 1980 to 2018. We use the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) and a Cold Wave Magnitude Index daily (CWMId) as temperature-based indicators and apply a Tweedie zero-inflated distribution to derive hazard intensities and frequencies. The hazard maps are combined with high-resolution maps of population, for which the vulnerability is quantified at community and city level using a set of eight socioeconomic indicators. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure, with 6.0-times more people exposed to extreme heat after 2000 compared to the last two decades of the previous century. CW hazard and exposure remained stagnant over the studied period in the region. We observe a general trend towards increased resilience to extreme temperature spells over the region. In the larger cities of the region, however, we find that vulnerability has increased due to an ageing population and more single households. HW risk has risen practically everywhere in the region, indicating that the reduction in vulnerability in the smaller communities is outpaced by the increase in HW hazard. In the large cities, HW risk levels in the 2010s are 50 % larger compared to the 1980s due to the rise in both hazard and vulnerability. Whereas in smaller communities, stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability results in reduced CW risk levels, the risk level in cities grew by 20 % due to the increased vulnerability over the study period. The findings of our study are highly relevant for steering investments in local risk mitigation measures, while the method can be applied to other regions that have detailed information on hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators.

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Section: Results and Discussion 280supporting

confidence: 90%

Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino Alto-Adige region from 1980 to 2018

Morlot

Russo

Feyen

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…The Mediterranean area is an important biodiversity hotspot (Marcelino et al, 2020; Myers et al, 2000) whose species are facing intense pressures from climate change (Aurelle et al, 2022). This region has experienced a strong increment in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events in recent decades (Díaz‐Poso et al, 2023; Kuglitsch et al, 2010; Serrano‐Notivoli et al, 2022) and it is expected to increase its maximum temperature extremes above the predicted global average (Seneviratne et al, 2016). Hence, reaching critical temperature thresholds will become increasingly frequent in the near future for many taxa, fostering redistributions, range shifts, and possibly triggering local extinctions (Chatzimentor et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This region has experienced a strong increment in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events in recent decades (Díaz-Poso et al, 2023;Kuglitsch et al, 2010;Serrano-Notivoli et al, 2022) and it is expected to increase its maximum temperature extremes above the predicted global average (Seneviratne et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By means of this novel experimental setup, we examined the effects of cooler nest temperatures on egg hatching failure, nestling mortality, and early growth trajectories, irrespective of variation in T air . The experiment was conducted in 2 consecutive years, during which the study area was hit by severe heatwaves (ISAC, 2022), which are becoming increasingly frequent in the Mediterranean region (Díaz‐Poso et al, 2023; Serrano‐Notivoli et al, 2022). Given that T air affecting the surrounding environment was similar for all parents, we could disentangle the effect of elevated T air , which may negatively affect foraging efficiency of parents and/or prey availability, from the direct effect of elevated T nest exposure on reproduction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Experimental nest cooling reveals dramatic effects of heatwaves on reproduction in a Mediterranean bird of prey

Corregidor‐Castro,

Morinay,

McKinlay

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Future climatic scenarios forecast increases in average temperatures as well as in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events, such as heatwaves. Whereas behavioral adjustments can buffer direct physiological and fitness costs of exposure to excessive temperature in wild animals, these may prove more difficult during specific life stages when vagility is reduced (e.g., early developmental stages). By means of a nest cooling experiment, we tested the effects of extreme temperatures on different stages of reproduction in a cavity‐nesting Mediterranean bird of prey, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni), facing a recent increase in the frequency of heatwaves during its breeding season. Nest temperature in a group of nest boxes placed on roof terraces was reduced by shading them from direct sunlight in 2 consecutive years (2021 and 2022). We then compared hatching failure, mortality, and nestling morphology between shaded and non‐shaded (control) nest boxes. Nest temperature in control nest boxes was on average 3.9°C higher than in shaded ones during heatwaves, that is, spells of extreme air temperature (>37°C for ≥2 consecutive days) which hit the study area during the nestling‐rearing phase in both years. Hatching failure markedly increased with increasing nest temperature, rising above 50% when maximum nest temperatures exceeded 44°C. Nestlings from control nest boxes showed higher mortality during heatwaves (55% vs. 10% in shaded nest boxes) and those that survived further showed impaired morphological growth (body mass and skeletal size). Hence, heatwaves occurring during the breeding period can have both strong lethal and sublethal impacts on different components of avian reproduction, from egg hatching to nestling growth. More broadly, these findings suggest that the projected future increases of summer temperatures and heatwave frequency in the Mediterranean basin and elsewhere in temperate areas may threaten the local persistence of even relatively warm‐adapted species.

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“…(Rohini et al, 2016;Naveena et al, 2021;Dar and Dar, 2022). Variability of the CW phenomenon is also associated with some regional and global climate anomalies (Serrano-Notivoli et al, 2022;Parliari et al, 2022) The presence of positive height anomalies and the presence of anomalous anticyclonic conditions over northern tracts of India at the levels of 500 hPa and 200 hPa promote consistent heat wave occurrences across this region (Rohini et al, 2016). Anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic flow in the mid-latitude of the Northern hemisphere in pursuance of the presence of the Rossby wave pattern is one of the major reasons behind heat waves over this region.…”

Section: Grid-specific Trend Of Hw and Cw Frequencymentioning

confidence: 98%

Exploring heat and cold wave susceptible areas of India using consistency and frequency coupled novel approach

Sarda

Halder

Das

et al. 2022

Preprint

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A good many studies identified year-specific heat wave (HW) and cold wave (CW) using a percentile approach, the present study tried to identify and grade consecutive two and five days HW and CW spells using consistency and frequency coupled approach using the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) endorsed gridded data across India since 1961 to 2021. The entire period was split into dry (1961–1990) and wet (1991–2021) phases to explore the long-term average of extreme temperature patterns and HW and CW change. The study revealed that wider parts of north western and central India were prone to statistically significant 30 years, 7 years, and 1-year average extreme temperature hot spot, and J & K and parts of north western India were prone to cold-spot (at 95 and 99% levels). The hot-spot and cold-spot dominated areas were again spotted as highly consistent and high-intensity HW and CW. About 60–65% area of north-western and central India was found consistent HW covering north western and central India. However, frequency and consistency coupled with HW intensity were recognized at five patches of the same area. Rajasthan and Delhi regions were found as the most intense HW zone. The average phase-wise change of HW was not very clear, however, some grids of this region recorded an increasing frequency of HW. CW intensity was increased by 13–26% in the northwestern tract over the phases. HW and CW matrix exhibited the co-existence of high intensity of HW and CW in the Rajasthan and Delhi region indicating high socio-ecological susceptibility. The findings of this study would be instrumental for regional priority planning and building adaptive capacity for combating the situation.

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Heat and cold waves in mainland Spain: Origins, characteristics, and trends

Cited by 23 publications

References 43 publications

Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino Alto-Adige region from 1980 to 2018

Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino Alto-Adige region from 1980 to 2018

Experimental nest cooling reveals dramatic effects of heatwaves on reproduction in a Mediterranean bird of prey

Exploring heat and cold wave susceptible areas of India using consistency and frequency coupled novel approach

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