Heat health risk assessment analysing heatstroke patients in Fukuoka City, Japan

Toosty, Nishat Tasnim; Hagishima, Aya; Tanaka, Ken

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0253011

Cited by 24 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…However, the bias would be one of the reasons why the number of patients with heatstroke in the westernmost prefecture of the main island (i.e., Yamaguchi prefecture, figure 1) was very high when compared to the surrounding prefectures in figure 3. Several studies have analyzed the relationship between heatstroke incidence and meteorological indices at the city level (Akatsuka et al 2016, Kotani et al 2018, Fujitani et al 2019, Sato et al 2020, Ikeda and Kusaka 2021, Toosty et al 2021, but have not considered the distribution of meteorological indices within a city, or the locations of heatstroke incidence. Even at the city level, considering such spatial distributions is essential.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Launching criteria of ‘Heatstroke Alert’ in Japan according to regionality and age group

Oka

Honda

Hijioka

2023

Environ. Res. Commun.

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To reduce heatstroke cases, the Japanese government launched “Heatstroke Alert” in 2020. In this initiative, an alert is issued when the daily maximum wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is expected to reach or exceed 33 °C. However, heatstroke incidents at a daily maximum of WBGT of 33 °C can vary by regions and by age groups. In this study, we analyzed the heatstroke incidence in all 47 prefectures of Japan at the daily maximum WBGT of 33 °C, considering age groups. In addition, considering variations in heatstroke incidence by prefectures and age groups, alternative “Heatstroke Alert” criteria (AHAC) by each prefecture and age group were examined. We also analyzed the daily maximum WBGT at which heatstroke incidence starts to increase (the WBGT threshold), as this can be an additional metric to “Heatstroke Alert” for the prevention of heatstroke. The results showed that the northern region (higher latitudes) of Japan has more patients with heatstroke per population, at a daily maximum WBGT of 33 °C, than the southern region (lower latitudes), by factors of approximately 3–5, considering each age group. The suggested AHAC among 47 prefectures were 29.8 [27.7–31.4] °C for 7–17 years, 32.4 [30.2–33.9] °C for 18–64 years, and 30.8 [28.5–33.2] °C for ≥ 65 years, respectively. The northern region exhibited a lower WBGT threshold (defined as the value at which heatstroke incidence is 0.1 persons per 105 people) than the southern region by approximately 3.5–5 °C, considering each age group. The calculated average WBGT threshold among 47 prefectures was 23.2 [20.4–25.3] °C for 7–17 years, 26.3 [24.2–28.1] °C for 18–64 years, and 23.1 [20.2–25.6] °C for ≥ 65 years, respectively. These findings are expected to contribute to the reinforcement of “Heatstroke Alert” and the use of WBGT information in a more preventive manner.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Launching criteria of ‘Heatstroke Alert’ in Japan according to regionality and age group

Oka

Honda

Hijioka

2023

Environ. Res. Commun.

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“…The incidence of heatstroke increases in elderly people because sweating rates decrease with aging 26 – 28 . Sweat gland atrophy with aging is one of the triggers for the reduction of sweat secretion 29 , 30 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Establishment and characterization of immortalized sweat gland myoepithelial cells

Hayakawa

Fujita

Okada

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Sweat glands play an important role in thermoregulation via sweating, and protect human vitals. The reduction in sweating may increase the incidence of hyperthermia. Myoepithelial cells in sweat glands exhibit stemness characteristics and play a major role in sweat gland homeostasis and sweating processes. Previously, we successfully passaged primary myoepithelial cells in spheroid culture systems; however, they could not be maintained for long under in vitro conditions. No myoepithelial cell line has been established to date. In this study, we transduced two immortalizing genes into primary myoepithelial cells and developed a myoepithelial cell line. When compared with primary sweat gland cells, the immortalized myoepithelial cells (designated "iEM") continued to form spheroids after the 4th passage and expressed α-smooth muscle actin and other proteins that characterize myoepithelial cells. Furthermore, treatment with small compounds targeting the Wnt signaling pathways induced differentiation of iEM cells into luminal cells. Thus, we successfully developed an immortalized myoepithelial cell line having differentiation potential. As animal models are not useful for studying human sweat glands, our cell line will be helpful for studying the mechanisms underlying the pathophysiology of sweating disorders.

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“…where 𝑦𝑦 is the predicted number of heatstroke patients, 𝐹𝐹 is the average transport rate per 100,000 people per day during the training data period, 𝑃𝑃𝑀𝑀𝑃𝑃 is the population in Tokyo on January We evaluated the accuracy of the predicted number of heatstroke patients using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), as expressed by Eqs. [5] and [6]. Smaller value of the indicator indicates higher accuracy.…”

Section: -4-3 Time-stratified Case-crossover Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of these deaths occurred in urban areas [5]. In Japan, the number of emergency transports due to heatstroke (hereinafter referred to as heatstroke patients) has been increasing annually and has become a social problem, especially in urban areas [6]. According to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in 2018, from May to September, there were 95,137 heatstroke patients nationwide, half of which were among seniors aged 65 and older, and of which 7,843 were in Tokyo.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the risk of heatstroke: Development of a highly accurate model

Nemoto

Hirabayashi²,

Sato

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background High temperatures in urban areas caused by global climate change and urban heat island intensification have led to an increase in the number people experiencing heat related illness, the most serious of which is heatstroke. To help prevent heatstroke, an accurate model should be developed that will predict dangerous conditions so that people can take preventive actions. Method The goal of this study was to compare three methods for predicting heatstroke risk: multiple regression analysis (MR), generalized additive model (GAM), and time-stratified case-crossover analysis (TC). Susceptibility to heatstroke is likely to be dependent on year-wise trends and is sensitive to training data, but most previous models have only tested a limited amount of training data. In this study we investigated the optimal number of years to use as training data. By comparing the errors of each method, the error influencing factors in the training data was identified. Results The TC errors were the smallest (p<0.005) and much less sensitive to the training data than others. The MR and GAM errors were significantly larger when the number of extremely hot days differed between the training and test data (p<0.01, p<0.05). All three methods tended to increase in accuracy as more past data years were added to the training data, but to decrease in accuracy after a certain point. The optimal accuracy was obtained by using data from three or four years. Conclusions As a result, a highly accurate risk model that was robust to training data was developed using the odds ratios produced by TC with low sensitivity to training data, something that has not been possible with previous models. This modeling approach is universally applicable and can be used to make urban areas safer in future.

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Heat health risk assessment analysing heatstroke patients in Fukuoka City, Japan

Cited by 24 publications

References 51 publications

Launching criteria of ‘Heatstroke Alert’ in Japan according to regionality and age group

Launching criteria of ‘Heatstroke Alert’ in Japan according to regionality and age group

Establishment and characterization of immortalized sweat gland myoepithelial cells

Predicting the risk of heatstroke: Development of a highly accurate model

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