Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change

Parkes, Ben; Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

doi:10.1007/s00484-022-02295-1

Cited by 20 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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“…Given that humid heat dominates projections and is an environmental limit to physiological adaptation, the proliferation of air conditioning, as discussed above, will be the most consequential path to ensuring livability ( 46 , 47 ). This switch to widespread air conditioning will be further motivated by the fact that swamp coolers—the cooling method of choice for many lower-middle-income regions—become ineffective at high wet-bulb temperatures ( 48 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance

Vecellio,

Kong,

Kenney

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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As heatwaves become more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting due to climate change, the question of breaching thermal limits becomes pressing. A wet-bulb temperature (T w ) of 35 °C has been proposed as a theoretical upper limit on human abilities to biologically thermoregulate. But, recent—empirical—research using human subjects found a significantly lower maximum T w at which thermoregulation is possible even with minimal metabolic activity. Projecting future exposure to this empirical critical environmental limit has not been done. Here, using this more accurate threshold and the latest coupled climate model results, we quantify exposure to dangerous, potentially lethal heat for future climates at various global warming levels. We find that humanity is more vulnerable to moist heat stress than previously proposed because of these lower thermal limits. Still, limiting warming to under 2 °C nearly eliminates exposure and risk of widespread uncompensable moist heatwaves as a sharp rise in exposure occurs at 3 °C of warming. Parts of the Middle East and the Indus River Valley experience brief exceedances with only 1.5 °C warming. More widespread, but brief, dangerous heat stress occurs in a +2 °C climate, including in eastern China and sub-Saharan Africa, while the US Midwest emerges as a moist heat stress hotspot in a +3 °C climate. In the future, moist heat extremes will lie outside the bounds of past human experience and beyond current heat mitigation strategies for billions of people. While some physiological adaptation from the thresholds described here is possible, additional behavioral, cultural, and technical adaptation will be required to maintain healthy lifestyles.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance

Vecellio,

Kong,

Kenney

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Evaporative coolers are less effective in tropical regions than in extratropics, and both low and highefficiency coolers are sufficient to return Africa to current levels of heat stress under climate change. [28]…”

Section: Indoor Environmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Of Heat & Arctic Blasts - The Risks to Human Health

Chakravorty¹

2022

Sus

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The run-up to the FIFIA World Cup football tournament in Qatar and the significant rise in fuel costs has focussed the world’s attention on the environmental impact of climate change on human health. While it is true that the health impact of working outdoors in extreme heat is indeed harmful to human health and leads in increase mortality, what has been less in the news is (1) that the impact of even moderately cold environmental temperatures is by far much larger (9:1) on environmental determinants of mortality for vulnerable sections of the population, even in high-income countries such as UK or USA, and (2) that multi-factorial deprivation, fuelled by a legacy of imperialism, racism, oppression of migrants and socio-cultural exclusion in all societies vastly amplifies the adverse impact on health. Considerable attention has focused on institutional racism but less on how the intersection of cultural values, frameworks, and meanings shapes institutional policies and practices. [1] This article explores the impact of environmental temperatures on human health, the influence of socio-cultural inequalities, the current interventions and the case for a policy approach that includes the voice of professional and voluntary groups representing minority groups.

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“…The tropics, characterized by high temperatures and humidities, face heightened risks from heat-related impacts (Parkes et al, 2022;Raymond et al, 2020Raymond et al, , 2021Sherwood & Huber, 2010). This vulnerability is exacerbated by the consistent warming trend, leading to more frequent and intense heat events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet‐Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance From the Current State of ENSO

Zhang,

Boos,

Held

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet‐bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TWmax). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TWmax and significant regional TWmax variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong‐to‐very‐strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ∼2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TWmax of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TWmax in specific areas.

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Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change

Cited by 20 publications

References 97 publications

Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance

Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance

Of Heat & Arctic Blasts - The Risks to Human Health

Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet‐Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance From the Current State of ENSO

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