Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city, Novi Sad (Serbia)

Savić, Stevan; Marković, Vladimir; Šećerov, Ivan; Pavić, Dragoslav; Arsenović, Daniela; Milošević, Dragan; Dolinaj, Dragan; Nagy, Imre; Pantelić, Milana

doi:10.1007/s11069-017-3160-4

Cited by 59 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 45 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Hence, the two categories mentioned above (marital status and household occupants) are logically interlinked [ 85 ]. In fact, some case studies used the marital status as a proxy for the family structure [ 39 , 40 ] while some others used the household structure variable as a proxy for social isolation [ 31 , 36 , 39 , 44 ]. In this research, both were used to see the differences of RRs by sub-categories and sex.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, information on specific causes of deaths were not available for the whole study period, reason why the present research did consider all-causes mortality. However, datasets on all-causes mortality are often employed in the heat-health nexus research due to both the lack of available data and to the absence of a uniform definition for heat-related death [ 31 , 54 , 85 , 86 ]. Second, the range of possibilities and studies with ozone (O 3 ) or particular matter (PM 2.5–10 ) has not been fully sampled or explored, due to the lack of data for the reference period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Evidence about the relevance of age to the increase of heat related mortality have been observed in different cities [4,21,29]. Qualitative [30] as well as quantitative studies [31][32][33][34] on heat stress agree that the temperature-related mortality risk increases in the elderly. Moreover, according to an investigation by Leone et al [29] that considered different age-group thresholds in different Mediterranean cities, none of the studies provide evidence of direct health effects among young persons [29].…”

Section: Urban Population Susceptibilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Social inequalities in heat-attributable mortality in the city of Turin, northwest of Italy: a time series analysis from 1982 to 2018

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Understanding context specific heat-health risks in urban areas is important, especially given anticipated severe increases in summer temperatures due to climate change effects. We investigate social inequalities in the association between daily temperatures and mortality in summer in the city of Turin for the period 1982–2018 among different social and demographic groups such as sex, age, educational level, marital status and household occupants. Methods Mortality data are represented by individual all-cause mortality counts for the summer months between 1982 and 2018. Socioeconomic level and daily mean temperature were assigned to each deceased. A time series Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models was fitted to capture the complex nonlinear dependency between daily mortality and temperature in summer. The mortality risk due to heat is represented by the Relative Risk (RR) at the 99th percentile of daily summer temperatures for each population subgroup. Results All-cause mortality risk is higher among women (1.88; 95% CI = 1.77, 2.00) and the elderly (2.13; 95% CI = 1.94, 2.33). With regard to education, the highest significant effects for men is observed among higher education levels (1.66; 95% CI = 1.38, 1.99), while risks for women is higher for the lower educational level (1.93; 95% CI = 1.79, 2.08). Results on marital status highlighted a stronger association for widower in men (1.66; 95% CI = 1.38, 2.00) and for separated and divorced in women (2.11; 95% CI = 1.51, 2.94). The risk ratio of household occupants reveals a stronger association for men who lived alone (1.61; 95% CI = 1.39, 1.86), while for women results are almost equivalent between alone and not alone groups. Conclusions The associations between heat and mortality is unequal across different aspects of social vulnerability, and, inter alia, factors influencing the population vulnerability to temperatures can be related to demographic, social, and economic aspects. A number of issues are identified and recommendations for the prioritisation of further research are provided. A better knowledge of these effect modifiers is needed to identify the axes of social inequality across the most vulnerable population sub-groups.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Urban Population Susceptibilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Social inequalities in heat-attributable mortality in the city of Turin, northwest of Italy: a time series analysis from 1982 to 2018

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Novi Sad, Niš, Belgrade, Leskovac -Milicevic et al, 2013;Unkašević & Tošić, 2013, 2015Savić et al, 2014Savić et al, , 2018Stanojević et al, 2014a;2014b;Šećerov et al, 2015;Bajšanski et al, 2015;Milošević et al, 2015aMilošević et al, , 2015bMilošević et al, , 2016Milošević et al, , 2017aMilošević et al, , 2017bDjukic et al, 2016;Anđelković et al, 2016;Basarin et al, 2016Basarin et al, , 2018Bogdanović-Protić et al, 2016;Djekic et al, 2018aDjekic et al, , 2018bVučković et al, 2019, Lukić et al, 2019 Slovenia Ljubljana Vidrih & Medved, 2013;Fikfak et al, 2017;Pogačar et al, 2017Pogačar et al, , 2019aPogačar et al, , 2019bPerčič et al, 2018;Žiberna & Ivajnšič, 2018 Measurements and assessment of thermal comfort and other climatological events responsible for outdoor thermal comfort were also investigated. Kovács & Németh (2012) evaluated the differences and changes of the thermal comfort conditions in the last half century in Budapest based on the measurements of two meteorological stations located in different environments (LCZs).…”

Section: Serbiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Outdoor thermal comfort research in urban areas of Central and Southeast Europe: A review

Dunjić¹

2019

Geographica Pannonica

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Constant urban population growth and intensive urbanization lead to increased pressure on urban areas leading to uncomfortable living conditions. The quality of urban living conditions often depends on the thermal comfort of the open urban spaces, which are used on the daily basis. That is the reason why the attention towards outdoor thermal comfort (OTC) is increasing in the last decade among the researchers from different fields of expertise. In this article, the review of the outdoor thermal comfort research in urban areas of 11 countries of Central and Southeast Europe in the last decade (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019). The main aim of the review is to give a comprehensive, systematic and complete insight in the current situation in the OTC research interest. The results of the review show increased but uneven interest in outdoor thermal comfort by the end of the research period in countries of the Central and Southeast Europe. In total, 120 articles on the topic of outdoor thermal comfort were identified in the research area. The most significant contribution to the urban outdoor thermal comfort research comes from Hungary, Serbia and Greece. Furthermore, five research objectives were identified: methodology improvement and development, climate sensitive and comfortable urban design and planning, citizens/pedestrian comfort and health assessment and improvement, tourism and health sector support and literature review.

show abstract

“…These transformations reduce the evapotranspiration of vegetation and increase the absorption of solar radiation by impervious materials, resulting in higher air and surface temperatures in urbanized city center areas than in surrounding rural regions, thus forming the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon [1]. Extreme heat events (EHE) [2] caused by the UHI not only lead to climatological problems [3] but also have an impact on public health [4][5][6] and even contribute to mortality among the urban population [7][8][9]. Recently, urban planning strategies have gained importance when UHI mitigation and sustainable development of the cities are considered [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical Simulation of Local Climate Zone Cooling Achieved through Modification of Trees, Albedo and Green Roofs—A Case Study of Changsha, China

Chen

Zheng

2020

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

By exploring the cooling potential of tree quantity, ground albedo, green roofs and their combinations in local climate zone (LCZ)-4, LCZ-5, and LCZ-6, this study focuses on the optimum cooling level that can be achieved in open residential regions in Changsha. It designs and models 39 scenarios by integrating in situ measurement and ENVI-met numerical simulation and further compares cooling effects of various combinations of the cooling factors. The results show that (1) an increased number of trees and higher albedo are more effective compared to green roofs in reducing summer potential temperatures at street level (2 m high) in three LCZs. Negative correlations are observed in the pedestrian air temperature with trees and ground albedo; (2) the effects of cooling factors vary among different LCZ classes, with the increased 60% more trees leading to lower outdoor temperatures for LCZ-4 (0.28 °C), LCZ-5 (0.39 °C), and LCZ-6 (0.54 °C), while higher albedo of asphalt surface (increased by 0.4) is more effective in LCZ-4 (reaches to 0.68 °C) 14:00, compare to LCZ-5 (0.49 °C) and LCZ-6 (0.38 °C); (3) applying combined cooling methods can provoke air temperature reduction (up to 0.96 °C), especially when higher levels of tree quantities (increased by 60%) are coupled with cool ground materials (albedo increased by 0.4). The results can contribute useful information for improving thermal environment in existing residential regions and future residential planning.

show abstract

Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city, Novi Sad (Serbia)

Cited by 59 publications

References 45 publications

Social inequalities in heat-attributable mortality in the city of Turin, northwest of Italy: a time series analysis from 1982 to 2018

Social inequalities in heat-attributable mortality in the city of Turin, northwest of Italy: a time series analysis from 1982 to 2018

Outdoor thermal comfort research in urban areas of Central and Southeast Europe: A review

Numerical Simulation of Local Climate Zone Cooling Achieved through Modification of Trees, Albedo and Green Roofs—A Case Study of Changsha, China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About