Heat Waves: Physical Understanding and Scientific Challenges

Barriopedro, David; García‐Herrera, Ricardo; Ordóñez, Carlos; Miralles, Diego G.; Salcedo‐Sanz, Sancho

doi:10.1029/2022rg000780

Cited by 89 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 439 publications

(820 reference statements)

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“…These include human bodies [3][4][5][6], plants [7,8], ecosystems [9] and infrastructures [10]. Urban areas are particularly at risk due to the so-called heat island effect [11] which enhances maximum temperatures during the day and minimum temperatures during the night. The capacity to predict and anticipate future maximum intensities of heatwaves is therefore of primary importance for adaptation to climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maximal reachable temperatures for Western Europe in current climate

Noyelle,

Zhang,

Yiou

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Human bodies, ecosystems and infrastructures display a non-linear sensibility to extreme temperatures occurring during heatwave events. Preparing for such events entails to know how high surface air temperatures can go. Here we examine the maximal reachable temperatures in Western Europe. Taking the July 2019 record-breaking heatwave as a case study and employing a flow analogues methodology, we find that temperatures exceeding 50 ∘C cannot be ruled out in most urban areas, even under current climate conditions. We analyze changes in the upper bound of surface air temperatures between the past (1940–1980) and present (1981–2021) periods. Our results show that the significant increase in daily maximum temperatures in the present period is only partially explained by the increase of the upper bound. Our results suggest that most of the warming of daily maximum surface temperatures result from strengthened diabatic surface fluxes rather than free troposphere warming.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maximal reachable temperatures for Western Europe in current climate

Noyelle,

Zhang,

Yiou

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…These anomalous heat conditions can have a vast array of devastating impacts on human and natural systems, even leading to mortality and causing significant economic damages (Mazdiyasni et al 2017). Heat waves (HWs) are defined as the occurrence of abnormally high temperatures beyond the threshold of their long-term normal that persist for several days (Smith et al 2013, Barriopedro et al 2023. The largest effect of HW is seen in regions like Africa, South America, the Middle East, and South Asia (Mazdiyasni et al 2017) due to changing climate patterns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The high humidity along with the hot environment could lead to heat stress, which has detrimental effects on human health (e.g. heat stroke), comfort, economic activities (decrease in labor productivity and excess energy demand) and agriculture activities (loss of crops) (Parsons et al 2021, Srinivasan 2022, Barriopedro et al 2023. The elevated body core temperature due to exposure to extreme moist heat could result in morbidity, even leading to mortality, and is considered as the prime contributor to weather-related deaths (Buzan and Huber 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The implications of aerosols on large-scale monsoon circulation and Himalayan glaciers have been investigated by several studies (Vinoj et al 2014, Solmon et al 2015, Li et al 2016, Usha et al 2020. However, the evaluation of the aerosol effects on heat stress is rather limited over South Asia (Dey et al 2021, Barriopedro et al 2023, despite an increase in regional temperatures and aerosol loading (solar dimming). In their recent review on HWs, Barriopedro et al (2023) pointed out that the effects of aerosols on HWs and heat stress remain unexplored, though there are several indications of aerosol influence on radiation and local meteorology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the evaluation of the aerosol effects on heat stress is rather limited over South Asia (Dey et al 2021, Barriopedro et al 2023, despite an increase in regional temperatures and aerosol loading (solar dimming). In their recent review on HWs, Barriopedro et al (2023) pointed out that the effects of aerosols on HWs and heat stress remain unexplored, though there are several indications of aerosol influence on radiation and local meteorology. The present study addresses the change in heat stress characteristics due to the inclusion of the aerosol-feedback process through a modelling approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of atmospheric aerosols on heat stress over South Asia

Ajay,

Nair,

Babu

et al. 2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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The recent trend in global mean temperature is expected to increase the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves and heat stress all around the world, especially over the Indian subcontinent. To investigate the plausible mechanisms and implications of meteorological feedback of aerosol forcing on heat stress over South Asia, simulations using a regional climate model (RegCM4) coupled with aerosols were carried out from 2015 to 2019. Generally, extreme heat days are observed mainly over the central and western Indo-Gangetic plains (IGPs) during May. The two heat-humidity indices, wet-bulb temperature (WBT) and heat index (HI), showed moderate effects due to aerosol forcing despite the high aerosol loading during the pre-monsoon. The inclusion of aerosols leads to surface cooling (a reduction in maximum surface temperature), with the highest impact over western India (WI) and the IGP. However, this surface cooling due to aerosols is compensated by an increase in near-surface relative humidity (RH), leading to an increase in WBT and HI. This compensating effect of RH on WBT and HI is greater in WI than that in eastern India. Regional heterogeneity in aerosol-induced changes in heat stress has a strong dependence on land-atmosphere interactions. This study clearly shows that aerosol-induced changes in RH play a decisive role in the assessment of heat stress, which answers the link between the prevalence of high heat stress conditions despite high aerosol loading (surface cooling) over the Indian region.

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Evaluation and projection of circulation conditions tied to summertime compound drought and heatwave frequency over the Yangtze River Delta, China, for the carbon neutrality period based on CMIP6 GCMs

Wang,

Liang,

Cheng

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Frequent occurrences of compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) may have considerable adverse impacts on human health and socioeconomic development. To project future summertime CDHWs over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China under carbon neutrality (CN) for policymakers, we used nine global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and evaluated and projected circulation conditions tied to the summer YRD CDHW frequency in the boreal summer. The results show that a marked mid‐tropospheric regional‐scale anticyclonic anomaly centred over the East China Sea can be deemed the dominant system linking the more frequent occurrence of YRD CDHWs. Our selected nine CMIP6 GCMs better captured the observed climatological and anomalous spatial circulation patterns connected to the summer YRD CDHW frequency. Moreover, the nine models' multi‐model ensemble mean (9MME) was better than most of the individual models regarding the related climatological circulation simulations. The 9MME‐projected changes in circulation conditions tied to summer YRD CDHWs during the carbon neutrality period (2050–2060) under SSP119 favour the comparable occurrence of the YRD with that for the same period under the medium greenhouse gas (GHG) warming scenario (SSP245), but the intensities of the CDHWs are the least severe. However, the highest number of YRD CDHWs is driven by the high GHG warming scenario (SSP585), and these CDHWs feature the most severe intensity. Our research identified a new paradigm regarding the frequency and intensity of the summer YRD CDHW under SSP119, highlighting the potential role of the newly accessible CN‐oriented sustainable development pathway in alleviating compound extremes.

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Heat Waves: Physical Understanding and Scientific Challenges

Cited by 89 publications

References 439 publications

Maximal reachable temperatures for Western Europe in current climate

Maximal reachable temperatures for Western Europe in current climate

Effects of atmospheric aerosols on heat stress over South Asia

Evaluation and projection of circulation conditions tied to summertime compound drought and heatwave frequency over the Yangtze River Delta, China, for the carbon neutrality period based on CMIP6 GCMs

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