Heatwaves in Southern Armenia in the context of climate change

Abstract

The quantitative and qualitative evaluations of long-term trends and spatial distribution of heatwaves (HW) are carried out in Southern Armenia (Syunik province). For this purpose, the daily average maximum air temperature data (T max ) from four meteorological stations (Sisian, Goris, Kapan, and Meghri) are studied for the 1936-2019 period. The HW catchment algorithm and a new concept of HW (which is called potential HWs [PHWs]) are developed. The presence of trends and their significance for different HW measures are assessed utilizing linear and exponential trends, Sen's slope, and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. The results show that HWs become increasingly frequent and intense. Moreover, they have extended duration, as they emerge earlier and fade later in Syunik province. Significant variation trends of HW are observed (e.g., the frequency of HWs increased up to five times), especially after the 1990s in southern and central parts of the province. Contrary to this, relatively weaker or no trends occurred in the northern parts. Our methodological approach successfully determines the HW measures' trends in the province based on the relief features and altitude differences. The outcomes highlight their notable impact on the progression of HW. Overall, this study provides significant insights into understanding HW's variations and their transformation in the mountainous areas. K E Y W O R D S climate change, heatwave (HW), maximum temperature (T max ), potential HW (PHW),